Decision making in livestock conservation
Decision making in livestock conservation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.11.016
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Simianer, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Simianer, H
本文综述了家畜保护决策的理论和实践。有人认为，牲畜保护的目标是保持品种之间和品种内的多样性和公认的价值的单一品种的组合。假设这个目标可以反映在一个目标函数中，决策需要最大化这个目标函数，有或没有限制。在文献中已经提出了不同的策略来实现这一目标。虽然Weitzman（1992）[Weitzman，M.L.，1992.关于多样性。夸脱。J. Economics，CVII：363-405.]并不完全适合应用于家畜物种内的品种保护，最大化预期多样性的方法Weitzman（1993）[Weitzman，M.L.，1993.保存什么？多样性理论在起重机养护中的应用。夸脱J. Economics，CVII：157-183.]被视为这一领域的基本概念。虽然科学文献中讨论了非常复杂的决策方法，但国家或国际当局或非政府组织目前使用的概念相当简单，主要与风险有关，并基于人口规模的简单函数。有人认为，决策必须考虑到一个物种的全球多样性，因此，决策和保护活动应在国际一级协调。使用更合适的决策规则将大大提高保护投资的成本效益。牲畜保护应基于一个扩大的目标函数，反映出所保护的一套品种的预期未来价值，其中包括品种内和品种之间的多样性以及主要品种的具体特征和文化或科学价值。一个关键问题是推导出所需的参数，如品种价值或品种的风险状态。由于通常很难获得精确的值，因此在不确定性下的决策将是通常的挑战，贝叶斯决策理论可能是一种选择。根据韦茨曼的期望多样性概念，可以推导出保护活动的最优配置模式和实施方案。给出了基于品种灭绝概率及其边际目标函数的品种排序近似决策规则。即使不完全知道各自的参数，使用建议的方法有可能增加一倍的成本效益，在保持多样性每保护美元的花费，相比，今天使用的简单的方法。(c)2005 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
In this article, theory and practical implementations of decision making in livestock conservation are reviewed. It is argued that the objective of livestock conservation is a composite of maintaining between and within breed diversity and single breeds of recognised value. Assuming that this goal can be reflected in an objective function, decision making requires maximisation of this objective function with or without restrictions. Different strategies have been proposed in the literature to achieve this goal. While the diversity measure suggested by Weitzman (1992) [Weitzman, M.L., 1992. On diversity. Quart. J. Economics, CVII: 363-405.] is not fully appropriate to be applied to breed conservation within livestock species, the approach of maximising expected diversity Weitzman (1993) [Weitzman, M.L., 1993. What to preserve? An application of diversity theory to crane conservation. Quart. J. Economics, CVII: 157-183.] is seen as a fundamental concept in this area. Although highly elaborate methods of decision making are discussed in the scientific literature, the concepts presently used by national or international authorities or non-government organisations are rather simplistic, mainly risk-related and based on simple functions of population size. It is argued that decision making has to account for the global diversity of a species and therefore decisions and conservation activities should be coordinated on an international level. The use of more appropriate decision rules will strongly increase the cost efficiency of conservation investments. Livestock conservation should be based on an extended objective function reflecting the expected future value of the conserved set of breeds, which encompasses within and between breed diversity as well as specific traits and cultural or scientific value of the main breeds. A critical issue is the derivation of the required parameters like the breed value or the risk status of a breed. Since it will generally be difficult to obtain exact values, decision making under uncertainty will be the usual challenge and Bayesian decision theory might be an option. The optimum allocation pattern and implementation of conservation activities can be derived based on Weitzman's expected diversity concept. Approximate decision rules for breed prioritisation based on the extinction probability of a breed and its marginal objective function are given. Even if the respective parameters are not perfectly known, the use of the suggested approaches has the potential to double the cost efficiency, in terms of maintained diversity per conservation dollar spent, compared to the simplistic approaches that are used today. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.