Weather variables and Japanese encephalitis in the metropolitan area of Jinan city, China
Weather variables and Japanese encephalitis in the metropolitan area of Jinan city, China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jinf.2007.07.004
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发表时间：
2007-12-01
影响因子：
28.2
通讯作者：
Parton, Kevin A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bi, Peng;Zhang, Ying;Parton, Kevin A.
目的：了解气象因素在流行性乙型脑炎传播中的作用，为当地卫生部门和社区提供决策依据。方法：收集山东省中国温带城市济南市1959-1979年流行性乙型脑炎报告病例和气象变量资料。由于疾病的季节性，数据分析被限制在每年6月至10月的5个月内。应用Spearman相关分析和时间序列调整Poisson回归分析来量化天气与病例数之间的关系。结果：月平均最高、最低气温、月总降雨量、月平均相对湿度与乙脑月报告数呈正相关，月平均气压与月平均气压呈负相关。滞后时间从一到两个月不等。所有这些天气变量在调整后的泊松回归模型中都是显著的。最高气温和最低气温的阈值分别为25.2℃和21.0℃。结论：天气变量可能影响了中国市区乙脑的传播。现阶段应制定公共卫生干预措施，以减少未来与气候变化有关的风险。(C)2007年英国感染学会。爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Objective: To identify weather-related risk factors and their roles in Japanese encephalitis transmission and to provide policy implications for local health authorities and communities.Methods: Data on notified cases of Japanese encephalitis and weather variables over the period 1959-1979 were collected from Jinan city, a temperate city in China. Due to seasonality of the disease, the data analysis was restricted to five months from June to October each year. Spearman correlation analysis and time-series adjusted Poisson regression analysis were performed to quantify the relationship between weather and the number of cases. The Hockey Stick model was used to detect potential threshold temperatures.Results: Monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures, monthly total rainfall and monthly mean relative humidity were positively correlated to monthly notification of Japanese encephalitis, while monthly mean air pressure was inversely correlated. Lag times varied from one to two months. All these weather variables were significant in the adjusted Poisson regression model. Thresholds of 25.2 degrees C for maximum temperature and 21.0 degrees C for minimum temperature were also detected.Conclusions: Weather variables could have affected the transmission of Japanese encephalitis in this urban area of China. Public health interventions should be developed at this stage to reduce future risks related to climate change. (c) 2007 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.