Modelling the effectiveness of intervention strategies to control COVID-19 outbreaks and estimating healthcare demand in Germany.
Modelling the effectiveness of intervention strategies to control COVID-19 outbreaks and estimating healthcare demand in Germany.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.puhip.2021.100121
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发表时间：
2021-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Modchang C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chadsuthi S;Modchang C
新型冠状病毒于二零一九年十二月爆发，导致全球大流行。这种疾病也影响到欧洲国家，包括德国。在没有有效药物或疫苗的情况下，非药物干预是减少病例数的最佳战略。一个确定性模型进行了模拟，以评估传染病和医疗保健需求的数量。我们使用年龄结构SEIR模型分析COVID-19传播，预测了德国内与COVID-19相关的医院和ICU床位需求。我们评估了不同控制措施的有效性，包括积极发现病例和排除无症状者、与感染者接触者的自我隔离、物理距离以及这些控制措施的组合。我们发现，接触者追踪可以减少ICU床位的高峰以及大规模检测。诊断和自我隔离之间的时间延迟影响控制措施。通过物理距离限制接触率将推迟疫情高峰，导致疫情早期对ICU床位的需求低于容量。我们的研究分析了几种情况，以便为面对COVID-19大流行的政策制定者提供有关可用不同措施的见解。我们强调，与病毒阳性者有过接触的个人必须尽快隔离，以减少与可能的传染病例的接触，减少传播。应实施保持物理距离和减少接触，以防止ICU需求过大。我们为COVID-19开发了一个按年龄划分的SEIR模型，以预测德国对医院和ICU床位的需求。高危人群的自我隔离和大规模检测对ICU床位高峰产生影响。物理上的距离会推迟爆发的高峰。
An outbreak of the novel coronavirus in December 2019 caused a worldwide pandemic. This disease also impacts European countries, including Germany. Without effective medicines or vaccines, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the best strategy to reduce the number of cases. A deterministic model was simulated to evaluate the number of infectious and healthcare demand. Using an age-structured SEIR model for the COVID-19 transmission, we project the COVID-19–associated demand for hospital and ICU beds within Germany. We estimated the effectiveness of different control measures, including active case-finding and quarantining of asymptomatic persons, self-isolation of people who had contact with an infectious person, and physical distancing, as well as a combination of these control measures. We found that contact tracing could reduce the peak of ICU beds as well as mass testing. The time delay between diagnosis and self-isolation influences the control measures. Physical distancing to limit the contact rate would delay the peak of the outbreak, which results in the demand for ICU beds being below the capacity during the early outbreak. Our study analyzed several scenarios in order to provide policymakers that face the pandemic of COVID-19 with insights into the different measures available. We highlight that the individuals who have had contact with a virus-positive person must be quarantined as soon as possible to reduce contact with possible infectious cases and to reduce transmission. Keeping physical distance and having fewer contacts should be implemented to prevent overwhelming ICU demand. We developed an age-structured SEIR model for the COVID-19 to project the demand for hospital and ICU beds within Germany. The self-isolation of at-risk groups and mass testing have impacts on the peak of ICU beds. Physical distancing would delay the peak of outbreak.
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