THE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN
THE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN
复制标题
人口变化对地区经济增长的影响：来自日本的证据
DOI：
10.1142/s0217590818420109
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
HATTA TATSUO
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
DAI ERBIAO;HATTA TATSUO
自20世纪70年代以来，由于出生率下降和寿命延长的共同作用，日本人口老龄化的速度比其他任何发达国家都要快。因此，在日本，劳动人口的增长一直快于总人口的增长，但近年来逐渐慢于总人口的增长。此外，所有县都在以不同的速度发生类似的快速人口变化。通过将人口变量引入基于1980-2010年地级市面板数据的区域经济增长实证模型，本文发现日本近期的人口变化对其区域经济增长产生了显著影响：劳动人口与总人口之间的增长率差异对人均地区生产总值（GRDP）增长率的贡献，即人口红利，已经消失。此外，老年人口（65岁及以上）增长率对人均GRDP增长率有非常显著的负向影响，而0-14岁青年人口增长率对人均GRDP增长率有显著的正向影响。这项研究的结果表明，日本的人口老龄化和其他正在进行的人口变化将继续抑制所有县的经济增长。鉴于出生率大幅上升的可能性很小，而当地劳动力供应迅速增加，提高劳动力素质和提高生产率对日本所有县都很重要。同时，有效吸引其他地区/国家的年轻技术工人移民应该是日本地方和中央政府的一个关键政策问题。
Since the 1970s, due to the combination of the declining birthrate and rising longevity, the speed of population aging in Japan has been more dramatic than in any other developed country. Consequently, the growth of the working population, which had been faster than the growth of the total population, has gradually become slower in recent years than the latter in Japan. Moreover, similar rapid demographic changes are taking place at various speeds in all prefectures. By introducing demographic variables into empirical models of regional economic growth, which is based on prefecture-level panel data for the period 1980–2010, this paper shows that the recent demographic changes in Japan have had significant effects on its regional economic growth: the contribution of the growth rate difference between the working population and the total population to per capita Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth rate, i.e., thedemographic bonus, has disappeared. In addition, the growth rate of the aged population (65 years old and over) has had a very significant negative effect on per capita GRDP growth rate, while the growth rate of the young population aged 0–14 has had a significant positive effect. The findings of this study imply that Japan’s population aging and other ongoing demographic changes will continue to depress economic growth in all prefectures. Given the low probability of a significant rise in the birth rate and the rapid increase in the local labor supply, it is important for all prefectures in Japan to raise the quality of their labor-force and improve productivity. Meanwhile, effectively attracting young skilled workers to migrate from other regions/countries should be a key policy issue for both local and central governments in Japan.