Changing climate risk in the UK: A multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators
Changing climate risk in the UK: A multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators
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DOI：
10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265
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发表时间：
2021-01-20
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Lowe, J. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, N. W.;Kay, A. L.;Lowe, J. A.
本文基于 UKCP18 气候预测，提出了英国不断变化的气候危害和资源的一系列一致的政策相关指标，涵盖健康、交通、能源、农业、洪水和水部门。如果没有明确的适应措施，整个英国的风险都会增加，但不同地区的风险会以不同的速度和不同的起始值增加。极端高温影响健康、公路和铁路网络以及农作物生长的可能性将显着增加。英国各地的农业和水文干旱风险以及野火危险都在增加。河流洪水风险增加，尤其是在北部和西部。制冷能源的需求将增加，但供暖能源的需求将下降。农作物生长期日数将增加，有利于多年生作物的生产。一般来说，在英格兰较温暖的南部和东部，与极端高温相关的风险增加最多，但从较低基数开始的增加速度可能会在更北部和西部更大。减少排放从长远来看可以降低风险，但在未来两到三十年内收效甚微。研究结果为支持国家和地方气候和抵御能力政策的制定提供了证据。需要采取增强复原力的措施以及到 2050 年实现净零排放的政策。复原力政策应认识到英国各地风险变化的可变性，以及因此不同的地方优先事项。需要对“最坏情况”排放情景做出明确的选择，因为它们会强烈影响估计的风险变化：RCP8.5 的风险增加可能比到 2100 年达到 4 摄氏度的路径要高得多。
This paper presents a consistent series of policy-relevant indicators of changing climate hazards and resources for the UK, spanning the health, transport, energy, agriculture, flood and water sectors and based on UKCP18 climate projections. In the absence of explicit adaptation, risks will increase across the whole of the UK, but at different rates and from different starting values in different regions. The likelihood of heat extremes affecting health, the road and rail network and crop growth will increase very markedly. Agricultural and hydrological drought risks increase across the UK, as does wildfire danger. River flood risk increases particularly in the north and west. Demand for cooling energy will increase, but demand for heating energy will decline. Crop growing degree days will increase, benefiting the production of perennial crops. In general, the risks associated with high temperature extremes will increase the most in warmer southern and eastern England, but the rate of increase from a lower base may be greater further north and west. Reducing emissions reduces risks in the long term but has little effect over the next two or three decades.The results provide evidence to support the development of national and local climate and resilience policy. Measures to enhance resilience are needed alongside policies to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Resilience policy should recognise the variability in change in risk across the UK, and therefore different local priorities. Explicit choices need to be made about 'worst case' emissions scenarios as they can influence strongly estimated changes in risk: the increase in risk with RCP8.5 can be considerably higher than with a pathway reaching 4 degrees C by 2100.