On the (im-)possibility of deriving transport policy implications from hybrid choice models
On the (im-)possibility of deriving transport policy implications from hybrid choice models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.09.001
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发表时间：
2014-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Kroesen, Maarten
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chorus, Caspar G.;Kroesen, Maarten
本文重点介绍的类型越来越多地使用的出行需求建模，其中包括潜在的感知和态度相关的变量的混合选择模型。我们认为，与目前的做法相反，这些模型不支持旨在通过改变潜在变量的值来改变出行行为的政策的推导。这种政策的一个例子是营销活动，其目的是影响潜在变量“公共交通的感知质量”，并因此模式选择行为。我们认为，这种缺乏支持是由于两个因素的结合：（i）潜变量通常是一个非平凡的程度内生于旅游选择，排除因果关系的推断;（ii）数据几乎毫无例外的横截面就潜变量而言，因此不允许索赔有关变量在个人层面上的变化。当潜在变量的数据是横截面的，并在某种程度上，潜在变量的内隐性不能被排除，这些变量最好不被用作目标的交通需求管理政策，虽然他们仍然可以被用作输入的情景研究，涉及人口随着时间的推移的变化。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
This paper focuses on hybrid choice models of the type increasingly being used by travel demand modelers, which include latent perception and attitude related variables. We argue that, contrary to current practice, these models do not support the derivation of policies that aim to change travel behavior by means of changing the value of a latent variable. An example of such a policy is a marketing campaign which aims to influence the latent variable 'perceived quality of public transport', and as a consequence mode choice behavior. We argue that this lack of support is due to the combination of two factors: (i) the latent variable is usually to a non-trivial extent endogenous to the travel choice, precluding inference of causality; and (ii) the data are almost without exception cross-sectional as far as the latent variable is concerned, and as such do not allow for claims concerning changes in the variable at the individual level. When data for the latent variables are cross-sectional, and to the extent that endogeneity of the latent variables cannot be ruled out, these variables should best not be used as targets for travel demand management policies although they may still be used as input for scenario studies that involve changes in the population over time. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.