On the Rational Choice Theory of Voter Turnout
On the Rational Choice Theory of Voter Turnout
复制标题
论选民投票率的理性选择理论
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
David P. Myatt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
David P. Myatt
我考虑了一个两个候选人的选举，其中每个候选人的受欢迎程度都有很大的不确定性，投票是昂贵的，参与者是工具性的。在合理的参数配置下，这种独特的均衡预测了大量的投票率，明显处于劣势的人的投票率更高，抵消了被认为是领导者的预期优势。我还提出了明确的预测投票率和选举结果的各种参数，包括选举的重要性，投票的成本，每个候选人的知名度，以及选举前的信息来源，如民意调查的准确性的反应。
I consider a two-candidate election in which there is aggre- gate uncertainty about the popularity of each candidate, where voting is costly, and where participants are instrumentally motivated. The unique equilibrium predicts substantial turnout under reasonable pa- rameter configurations, and greater turnout for the apparent underdog offsets the expected advantage of the perceived leader. I also present clear predictions about the response of turnout and the election outcome to various parameters, including the importance of the election; the cost of voting; the perceived popularity of each candidate; and the accuracy of pre-election information sources, such as opinion polls.
DOI：
10.2307/2149903
发表时间：
1981-01
期刊：
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影响因子：
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作者：
M. Fiorina
通讯作者：
M. Fiorina