Winter temperatures of southern China reconstructed from phenological cold/warm events recorded in historical documents over the past 500 years
Winter temperatures of southern China reconstructed from phenological cold/warm events recorded in historical documents over the past 500 years
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根据过去500年历史文献记录的物候冷/暖事件重建中国南方冬季气温
DOI：
10.1016/j.quaint.2017.08.033
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Ge Quansheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zheng Jingyun;Liu Yang;Hao Zhixin;Zhang Xuezhen;Ma Xiang;Liu Haolong;Ge Quansheng
我们重建了一个500年之久的冬季（11月至2月）的温度序列，每年的分辨率在中国南方。该系列是基于从历史文献中提取的六种代理，包括霜冻灾害，冰冻灾害和雪的南部界限，以及降雪日数和首次/末次霜冻灾害日期的沿着。在重建过程中，建立了各代用指标与区域冬季气温的线性回归模型。执行方差匹配、最小值选择和包络分析方法，以消除由于不同的代理类型、缺失数据和记录数量变化而产生的非齐次效应。与1851-1950年的平均气温比较，重建结果表明，中国南方在16世纪的前40年经历了一个寒冷的时期，平均气温为-0.40 °C，极端事件频繁。16世纪40年代至60年代中期出现了一个上升期，随后是一个稳定期，直到17世纪20年代。从17世纪30年代开始，气温开始下降，并在1660年达到最低点，降至-2.01 °C。此外，1648年至1697年的平均值为-0.49 °C，这是过去五个世纪中最冷的50年。18世纪至20世纪中叶的气温具有年度至年代际波动的特征，其中18世纪70年代和18世纪40年代至18世纪50年代出现了两次中暖时段，18世纪90年代、18世纪30年代和19世纪70年代至19世纪90年代中期出现了三次中冷时段。近世纪来，自1901年以来的增温速率为0.56 °C/100 a，而1979年以后的增温速率达到0.32 °C/10 a。过去五个世纪中最热的五年都发生在1990年之后。
We reconstructed a 500-year long winter (November to February) temperature series with a yearly resolution in southern China. The series is based on six types of proxies extracted from historical documents, including the southern limits of frost disaster, freezing disaster and snow, along with snowfall days and the first/last frost disaster dates. In the reconstruction, linear regression models are established among each proxy and regional winter temperature. Variance matching, minimum selection, and envelope analysis methods are performed to eliminate non-homogeneous effects because of different proxy types, missing data, and the changing amount of records. Compared with the average temperatures during 1851–1950, the reconstruction shows that southern China experienced a cold period in the first 40 years of the sixteenth century with an average of −0.40 °C with frequent extremes. An upturning occurred during the 1540s to mid-1560s, followed by a stable phase until the 1620s. Then the temperature started to fall from the 1630s and reached its lowest in 1660, where it dropped to −2.01 °C. Moreover, the mean value was −0.49 °C between the years 1648–1697, which was the coldest 50 years over the last five centuries. The temperatures during the eighteenth century to the middle of the twentieth century was characterized by annual to decadal fluctuations, with two moderately warm intervals in the 1770s and 1840s–1850s, as well as three moderately cold intervals in 1790s, 1830s, and 1870s to the mid-1890s. Over the recent century, the warming rate since 1901 was 0.56 °C/100a, whereas the temperature reached 0.32 °C/10a after 1979. The hottest five years during the last five centuries all occurred after 1990.