Climate and water.
Climate and water.
复制标题
气候和水。
DOI：
10.1126/science.243.4890.461
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发表时间：
1989
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
P. Abelson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Abelson
每个人都在谈论气候变化。这只是说说而已，还是业务水文机构正在修改其做法，以适应不断变化的气候？除此之外，操作实践还受到各种其他因素的影响，如改变土地用途、政策等。本研究通过问卷调查解决了这一问题。与欧洲和中东53个气象组织成员国的业务水文机构进行了接触。收到了10个国家的回应，使回报率达到19%的可容忍水平。调查的主要议题是：国家水文局业务做法的演变和变化，以应对不断增长的对气候变化对水资源影响的信息需求和监测与评估的需要;与其他国家和国际组织及机构就气候和水相关问题开展合作;以及与从事可能的极端洪水和干旱评估、预报和预警工作的专家进行联络和提供咨询意见。大多数受访者预计气候和水资源管理会发生重大变化或变异，但气候情景的不确定性使得未来难以适应业务水文学的做法。预计至少在能源生产、风险和安全评估、潜在蒸散量、土壤水平衡和海平面方面会发生变化。预计冬季气温和降水量、冬季低流量、夏季融雪和暴雨、夏秋季流量也将增加、河流设计流量、低流量情况的频率以及平均海平面将特别增加。对调查问卷作出答复的每个国家都深入考虑了气候多变性和气候变化对水资源的潜在影响。然而，由于高度的不确定性，一些问题与未来影响的评估有关。正如一个国家的答复者所指出的：“目前气候多变的影响对许多国家和流域的水资源成功管理造成了重大障碍。必须将旨在提高水管理系统适应气候多变性的复原力的战略纳入国家水资源综合管理计划”。气候与水
Everybody talks about climate change. Is this just talking or are the operational hydrological agencies modifying their practices in order to adapt to the changing climate? Besides, the operational practices are influenced by various other factors such as changing land use, policies and so forth. This entity has been addressed in this study through a questionnaire survey. Operational hydrological agencies of the 53 WMO member countries of Europe and Middle East were approached. Response from 10 countries was obtained, making the return rate up to the tolerable level of 19%. The main topics of the survey were the evolution and changes of the operational practices of National Hydrological Services in response to the developing demand for information on, and need of monitoring and assessment of climate change impacts on water resources; cooperation with the other national and international organizations and institutions on climate and water related issues; and the liaison and advice to experts working on potential extreme floods and drought assessment, forecasting and warning. Most respondents expect major changes or variability in the climate and water resources management, but the uncertainty of the climate scenarios makes it difficult to adapt the practices of the operational hydrology in the future. Changes are expected at least in energy production, risks and safety assessments, potential evapotranspiration, soil water balance and sea level. Especially increases are anticipated in winter temperatures and precipitation; winter low flows; snowmelt and heavy rains in summer time, increasing also summer-autumn flows; the design discharges of rivers; frequencies of low flow situations; and in the mean sea level. In every country that answered the survey questionnaire, the potential impacts of climate variability and change on water resources had been deeply considered. However, several problems due to high uncertainties are related to the assessment of the future impacts. As the respondent of one country stated: “The effects of current climate variability create major obstacles to successful water resources management in many countries and basins. It is imperative that strategies aimed at increasing the resilience of water management systems to adapt to climate variability be incorporated into national IWRM plans.” WMO XII-RA VI WGH Climate and Water