Predicting the near and distant future
Predicting the near and distant future
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DOI：
10.1037/0096-3445.135.2.152
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发表时间：
2006-05-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Trope, Yaacov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nussbaum, Shiri;Liberman, Nira;Trope, Yaacov
四项研究调查了个人对预测近期和远期结果的信心。研究1发现，当这些实验预计在更遥远的未来发生时，参与者对心理实验的理论预测更有信心。研究2-4考察了参与者对预测他们在近期和远期测试中表现的信心。这些研究发现，在预测他们更遥远的未来表现时，参与者忽略了问题的格式（例如，多项选择与开放式），而是依赖于他们感知的一般知识（例如，历史知识）。总之，目前的研究表明，对更遥远未来的预测是基于相对抽象的信息。当预测涉及相对抽象的信息所暗示的结果时，人们在预测遥远的未来时比在预测不久的未来时更有信心。
Four studies investigated individuals' confidence in predicting near future and distant future outcomes. Study 1 found that participants were more confident in theory-based predictions of psychological experiments when these experiments were expected to take place in the more distant future. Studies 2-4 examined participants' confidence in predicting their performance on near arid distant future tests. These studies found that in predicting their more distant future performance, participants disregarded the format of the questions (e.g., multiple choice vs. open ended) and relied, instead, on their perceived general knowledge (e.g., history knowledge). Together, the present studies demonstrate that predictions of the more distant future are based on relatively abstract information. Individuals feel more confident in predicting the distant future than the near future when the predictions concern outcomes that are implied by relatively abstract information.