Consistent Estimates of Very Low HIV Incidence Among People Who Inject Drugs: New York City, 2005-2014
Consistent Estimates of Very Low HIV Incidence Among People Who Inject Drugs: New York City, 2005-2014
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2015.303019
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Perlman, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Des Jarlais, Don C.;Arasteh, Kamyar;Perlman, David
目标。比较估计注射吸毒者艾滋病毒低发病率的方法。方法。我们在 2005 年至 2014 年期间检查了纽约市的 4 种方法：(1) 重复参与者中的 HIV 血清转化，(2) 新注射者中因注射时间延长而导致的 HIV 患病率增加，(3) 纽约州和疾病控制与预防中心的分层外推算法，以及 (4) 向纽约市健康和心理卫生局报告的新诊断的 HIV 病例。结果。 4 个估计值是一致的：(1) 重复参与者：每 100 人年 0.37 人（PY；95% 置信区间 [CI] = 0.05/100 PY，1.33/100 PY）； (2) 按注射年数回归患病率：0.61/100 PY (95% CI = 0.36/100 PY, 0.87/100 PY)； （3）分层外推算法：0.32/100 PY（95% CI = 0.18/100 PY，0.46/100 PY）； (4) 新诊断的 HIV 病例：每 100 PY 0.14 例（95% CI = 0.11/100 PY，0.16/100 PY）。结论。所有方法似乎都反映了注射吸毒者中艾滋病毒传播率极低且不断减少的相同现象。公共卫生影响。如果资源可用，使用多种方法将为公共卫生目的提供更好的信息。
Objectives. To compare methods for estimating low HIV incidence among persons who inject drugs.Methods. We examined 4 methods in New York City, 2005 to 2014: (1) HIV sero-conversions among repeat participants, (2) increase of HIV prevalence by additional years of injection among new injectors, (3) the New York State and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stratified extrapolation algorithm, and (4) newly diagnosed HIV cases reported to the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.Results. The 4 estimates were consistent: (1) repeat participants: 0.37 per 100 person-years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.05/100 PY, 1.33/100 PY); (2) regression of prevalence by years injecting: 0.61 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.36/100 PY, 0.87/100 PY); (3) stratified extrapolation algorithm: 0.32 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.18/100 PY, 0.46/100 PY); and (4) newly diagnosed cases of HIV: 0.14 per 100PY (95% CI = 0.11/100 PY, 0.16/100 PY).Conclusions. All methods appear to capture the same phenomenon of very low and decreasing HIV transmission among persons who inject drugs. Public Health Implications. If resources are available, the use of multiple methods would provide better information for public health purposes.