How well do CMIP5 Earth System Models simulate present climate conditions in Europe and Africa?
How well do CMIP5 Earth System Models simulate present climate conditions in Europe and Africa?
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-013-1742-8
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发表时间：
2013-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Gutierrez, J. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brands, S.;Herrera, S.;Gutierrez, J. M.
本研究评估了耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段的7个地球系统模式（ESM）再现欧洲和非洲当前气候条件的能力。这是从降尺度的角度进行的，同时考虑到统计和动态方法的要求。ECMWF的ERA-中期再分析被用作参考，用于评估每日时间尺度上的环流、温度和湿度变量，该时间尺度基于分布相似性得分。另外，为了获得再分析不确定性的估计，计算了ERA-Interim与日本气象厅JRA-25再分析的偏差。两种再分析之间存在重大差异的领域不允许进行适当的评估，因为无害环境管理的绩效对再分析的选择很敏感。为了用于统计降尺度研究，ESM性能是在网格框尺度上计算的，并在覆盖欧洲和非洲的大空间域上进行映射，此外还突出显示了即使对于居中/零均值时间序列也存在显著分布差异的区域。为了用于动态降尺度研究，性能是专门评估沿着横向边界的三个CORDEX域定义为欧洲，地中海盆地和非洲。
The present study assesses the ability of seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to reproduce present climate conditions in Europe and Africa. This is done from a downscaling perspective, taking into account the requirements of both statistical and dynamical approaches. ECMWF's ERA-Interim reanalysis is used as reference for an evaluation of circulation, temperature and humidity variables on daily timescale, which is based on distributional similarity scores. To additionally obtain an estimate of reanalysis uncertainty, ERA-Interim's deviation from the Japanese Meteorological Agency JRA-25 reanalysis is calculated. Areas with considerable differences between both reanalyses do not allow for a proper assessment, since ESM performance is sensitive to the choice of reanalysis. For use in statistical downscaling studies, ESM performance is computed on the grid-box scale and mapped over a large spatial domain covering Europe and Africa, additionally highlighting those regions where significant distributional differences remain even for the centered/zero-mean time series. For use in dynamical downscaling studies, performance is specifically assessed along the lateral boundaries of the three CORDEX domains defined for Europe, the Mediterranean Basin and Africa.