Modeling household fertility decisions: a nonlinear simultaneous probit model.
Modeling household fertility decisions: a nonlinear simultaneous probit model.
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家庭生育决策建模：非线性联立概率模型。
DOI：
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发表时间：
1992
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
G. Arminger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael E. Sobel;G. Arminger
“本文提出了模拟家庭生育决策的新方法。具体来说，我们的模型的三变量分布的妻子的表示希望额外的孩子，丈夫的表示希望额外的孩子，和随后的生育率。在该模型中，丈夫（妻子）所陈述的愿望被视为丈夫（妻子）对随后生育的潜在倾向的指标。丈夫（妻子）的性情可以取决于妻子（丈夫）的性情。这两种倾向结合在一起，就产生了夫妇以后生育的倾向。我们展示了如何估计和测试这些模型，以及如何使用这些参数来评估每个合作伙伴对倾向的相对影响。“该模型使用普林斯顿生育研究20世纪50年代和60年代的美国数据进行了测试。结果表明，“丈夫的性格得分和妻子的性格得分都会影响倾向得分，而且，在一些额外的假设下，丈夫和妻子对倾向的相对影响是相等的。"
"This article proposes new methods for modeling household fertility decisions....Specifically, we model the trivariate distribution of wife's stated desire for additional children, husband's stated desire for additional children, and subsequent fertility. In the model, the stated desire of the husband (wife) is viewed as an indicator of the husband's (wife's) latent disposition toward subsequent fertility. The husband's (wife's) disposition is allowed to depend on the wife's (husband's) disposition. The two dispositions are then combined to generate the couple's propensity for subsequent fertility. We show how such models can be estimated and tested and how the parameters can be used to assess the relative influence of each partner on the propensity." The model is tested using U.S. data from the Princeton Fertility Study for the 1950s and 1960s. The results indicate that "both husband's disposition score and wife's disposition score affect the propensity score, and, under some additional assumptions, that husbands and wives have equal relative influence on the propensity."