Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women
Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1107993108
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发表时间：
2011-07-19
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Keilman, Nico
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cohen, Joel E.;Kravdal, Oystein;Keilman, Nico
在大多数社会中，39岁的受教育程度较高的妇女生育的子女较少。为了了解这种关联，我们调查了1964年出生队列的挪威妇女生育对教育程度的影响和教育对生育率的影响。使用17至39岁的详细年度数据，我们估计了未来一年额外出生，教育水平变化和入学的概率，条件是生育史，教育水平和每年年初的入学史。一个简单的模型再现了一个下降的梯度，在39岁时，随着教育水平的提高，出生的孩子。当一个反事实模拟假设生育对教育进展或入学没有影响时（不改变教育对生育的估计影响），模拟的出生儿童数量随着完成教育水平的增加而减少得很少，与数据相反。然而，当另一个反事实模拟假设当前教育水平和入学率对生育没有影响时（不改变生育对教育的估计影响），模拟的出生儿童数量随着完成教育水平的增加而减少，几乎与数据的减少一样多。总之，在挪威的这些数据中，生育对教育的阻碍远远大于教育对生育的阻碍。这些结果表明，拥有高等学位的妇女平均完成生育率较低，主要是因为过早生育一个或多个孩子的妇女更有可能离开或不进入长期教育轨道，永远不会达到高教育水平。
In most societies, women at age 39 with higher levels of education have fewer children. To understand this association, we investigated the effects of childbearing on educational attainment and the effects of education on fertility in the 1964 birth cohort of Norwegian women. Using detailed annual data from ages 17 to 39, we estimated the probabilities of an additional birth, a change in educational level, and enrollment in the coming year, conditional on fertility history, educational level, and enrollment history at the beginning of each year. A simple model reproduced a declining gradient of children ever born with increasing educational level at age 39. When a counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of childbearing on educational progression or enrollment (without changing the estimated effects of education on childbearing), the simulated number of children ever born decreased very little with increasing completed educational level, contrary to data. However, when another counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of current educational level and enrollment on childbearing (without changing the estimated effects of childbearing on education), the simulated number of children ever born decreased with increasing completed educational level nearly as much as the decrease in the data. In summary, in these Norwegian data, childbearing impeded education much more than education impeded childbearing. These results suggest that women with advanced degrees have lower completed fertility on the average principally because women who have one or more children early are more likely to leave or not enter long educational tracks and never attain a high educational level.