Integrated Mechanistic Engineering Models and Macroeconomic Input-Output approach to Model Physical Economy for Evaluating the Impact of transition to Circular Economy
Integrated Mechanistic Engineering Models and Macroeconomic Input-Output approach to Model Physical Economy for Evaluating the Impact of transition to Circular Economy
复制标题
综合机械工程模型和宏观经济投入产出方法来模拟实体经济，以评估向循环经济转型的影响
DOI：
10.1039/d1ee00544h
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
32.5
通讯作者：
Singh, Shweta
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vunnava, Venkata Sai;Singh, Shweta
向低碳和零废物经济的可持续转型需要对一个地区采用新兴技术的机会和影响进行宏观评估。然而，全面评估当前的物理流动和浪费是一项繁琐的任务，因此导致在扩大规模和采用新兴技术之前缺乏全面的评估。利用为工程和生物系统开发的机械模型以及投入产出模型的宏观经济框架，我们提出了一种新的综合方法来全面绘制物理经济，该方法可以自动绘制一个地区的工业流动和浪费过程。通过使用对废物产生有很大影响的10个农业部门的机制模型，绘制美国伊利诺伊州以农业为基础的实体经济的地图，证明了这种方法。每个模型都机械地模拟了经济部门中的物质转化过程，并为实体经济映射提供了必要的物质流信息。以实物投入产出表（PIOT）形式开发的实物经济模型捕捉了该地区行业间的实物相互作用和废物流动，从而为实施循环经济战略（即大规模采用回收技术）的机会提供了见解。在伊利诺斯州，采用工业废水和猪粪回收技术将产生最大的影响，减少养猪业废物产量的60%，减少大豆壳废物的99%，减少干玉米碾磨（玉米乙醇生产）废物的96%。还观察到氮肥制造废物减少了很小的%。实物经济模型显示，在模拟的年份（2018年）中，尿素行业的材料使用量最高，为5.52 × 108吨，绿豆农业的材料使用量最低，为1.30 × 105吨。机械模型还允许捕获实体经济中的元素流，尿素部门每个操作年使用8.25 × 107吨元素碳（最高），绿豆农业每个操作年使用3.90 × 104吨元素碳（最少）。本文提出的方法建立了工程和实体经济建模社区之间的联系，以标准化实体经济的映射，可以为成功过渡到低碳和零废物的循环经济提供见解。
Sustainable transition to low carbon and zero waste economy requires a macroscopic evaluation of opportunities and impact of adopting emerging technologies in a region. However, a full assessment of current physical flow and waste is a tedious task, thus leading to a lack of comprehensive assessment before scale up and adoption of emerging technologies. Utilizing the mechanistic models developed for engineering and biological systems with the macroeconomic framework of Input–Output models, we propose a novel integrated approach to fully map the physical economy, that automates the process of mapping industrial flows and wastes in a region. The approach is demonstrated by mapping the agro-based physical economy of the state of Illinois, USA by using mechanistic models for 10 agro-based sectors, which have a high impact on waste generation. Each model mechanistically simulates the material transformation processes in the economic sector and provides the necessary material flow information for physical economy mapping. The model for physical economy developed in the form of a Physical Input–Output Table (PIOT) captures the interindustry physical interactions in the region and waste flows, thus providing insight into the opportunities to implement circular economy strategies i.e., adoption of recycling technologies on a large scale. In Illinois, adoption of technologies for industrial waste-water and hog manure recycling will have the highest impact by reducing >62% of hog industry waste outputs, >99% of soybean hull waste, and >96% of dry corn milling (corn ethanol production) waste reduction. A small % reduction in nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing waste was also observed. The physical economy model revealed that the urea sector had the highest material use of 5.52 × 108 tons and green bean farming with the lowest material use of 1.30 × 105 tons for the year modeled (2018). The mechanistic modeling also allowed elemental flows across the physical economy to be captured, with the urea sector using 8.25 × 107 tons of elemental carbon per operation-year (highest) and green bean farming using 3.90 × 104 tons of elemental carbon per operation-year (least). The approach proposed here establishes a connection between engineering and physical economy modeling community for standardizing the mapping of physical economy that can provide insights for successfully transitioning to a low carbon and zero waste circular economy.