Introduction to the Issue
Introduction to the Issue
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问题简介
DOI：
10.1017/jwe.2013.32
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Paweł Sznajder
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wojciech Hanuszkiewicz;Paweł Sznajder
本期《葡萄酒经济学杂志》以《2018年全球葡萄酒市场建模：汇率、口味变化和中国进口增长》开篇，作者是Kym Anderson和Glyn Wittwer。他们的分析采用了一个基于2007-2011年数据的计量经济学模型，预测了未来五年全球葡萄酒市场可能出现的一系列情况。作者为不同的实际汇率和经济增长率计算了一系列可供选择的模拟。除了发现优质葡萄酒的持续趋势外，所有的情况还表明，“中国在全球葡萄酒市场的地位可能会变得越来越突出. . . .。并不是所有的行业都能从中受益，如果对非优质生产商的产品需求继续像上面预测的那样减少，他们将面临价格下跌。但那些愿意投入足够资金与中国进口商/经销商建立关系，或在中国从事葡萄种植或葡萄酒酿造的出口公司，很可能会从此类投资中获得长期利益。”
This issue of the Journal of Wine Economics begins with “Modeling Global Wine Markets to 2018: Exchange Rates, Taste Changes, and China’s Import Growth” by Kym Anderson and Glyn Wittwer. Their analysis employs an econometric model based on 2007–2011 data, to forecast a range of likely global wine market scenarios for the next five years. The authors compute a range of alternative simulations for different real exchange and economic growth rates. In addition to finding a continuing trend toward premium wines, all scenarios also suggest that “China’s place in global wine markets is likely to become increasingly more prominent. . . . Not all segments of the industry are projected to benefit, with nonpremium producers facing falling prices if demand for their product continues to dwindle as projected above. But those exporting firms willing to invest sufficiently in building relationships with their Chinese importer/distributor – or in going into grape growing or wine making within China, may well enjoy long-term benefits from such investments.”