Estimating impacts of recurring flooding on roadway networks: a Norfolk, Virginia case study
Estimating impacts of recurring flooding on roadway networks: a Norfolk, Virginia case study
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-020-04427-5
复制
发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Shraddha Praharaj;T. D. Chen;F. T. Zahura;Madhur Behl;J. Goodall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shraddha Praharaj;T. D. Chen;F. T. Zahura;Madhur Behl;J. Goodall
气候变化和海平面上升增加了沿海社区洪水事件的频率和严重性。这项研究使用众包交通和洪水事件数据量化了经常性洪水对交通的影响。弗吉尼亚州诺福克的基于位置的应用程序提供的众包交通数据补充了12个地点的连续计数站交通量数据，以评估经常性洪水对交通流量的影响。一个随机森林数据预测模型，利用道路特征，交通流量的特点，和水文数据作为输入规模的交通量数据的空间范围从12到7736路段。建模结果表明，在2017年1月至2018年8月期间，诺福克市报告的洪水事件使全市24小时的车辆行驶时间（VHT）平均减少了3%。为了研究影响的时间和空间变化，还分析了导航应用程序Waze在2017年8月至2018年8月期间收集的众包洪水事件报告。当地规模的建模结果表明，在工作日的下午和晚上，受洪水影响的地区经历了统计上显着的VHT减少7%，车辆行驶里程减少12%，平均。这些影响因道路类型而异，高速公路上的交通量大幅下降，而主要干线在洪水期间的交通量增加。结果表明，分析经常性的洪水在当地的规模是更谨慎的影响是时间和空间异质性。此外，减轻影响的对策需要一种动态战略，能够适应不同时期和特定地点的条件。
Climate change and sea level rise have increased the frequency and severity of flooding events in coastal communities. This study quantifies transportation impacts of recurring flooding using crowdsourced traffic and flood incident data. Agency-provided continuous count station traffic volume data at 12 locations is supplemented by crowd-sourced traffic data from location-based apps in Norfolk, Virginia, to assess the impacts of recurrent flooding on traffic flow. A random forest data predictive model utilizing roadway features, traffic flow characteristics, and hydrological data as inputs scales the spatial extent of traffic volume data from 12 to 7736 roadway segments. Modeling results suggest that between January 2017 and August 2018, City of Norfolk reported flood events reduced 24 h citywide vehicle-hours of travel (VHT) by 3%, on average. To examine the temporal and spatial variation of impacts, crowdsourced flood incident reports collected by navigation app Waze between August 2017 and August 2018 were also analyzed. Modeling results at the local scale show that on weekday afternoon and evening periods, flood-impacted areas experience a statistically significant 7% reduction in VHT and 12% reduction in vehicle-miles traveled, on average. These impacts vary across roadway types, with substantial decline in traffic volumes on freeways, while principal arterials experience increased traffic volumes during flood periods. Results suggest that analyzing recurring flooding at the local scale is more prudent as the impact is temporally and spatially heterogeneous. Furthermore, countermeasures to mitigate impacts require a dynamic strategy that can adapt to conditions across various time periods and at specific locations.