Using demographic models to project the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals: Pocillopora damicornis as a case study
Using demographic models to project the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals: Pocillopora damicornis as a case study
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DOI：
10.1007/s00338-015-1269-z
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Edmunds, P. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bramanti, L.;Iannelli, M.;Edmunds, P. J.
使用经验分析的影响，全球气候变化（GCC）和海洋酸化（OA）的生存和钙化的Pocillopora damicornis的早期生命阶段，我们采用了人口统计学的方法来预测GCC和OA的影响，这种珊瑚的人口动态。我们构建了一个基于大小的人口模型，使用生活史表和转移概率的人口在台湾南部，并预计人口结构超过100年的情景下变暖和酸化。模拟纳入了参数的随机变异性（+/-5%），由于温度和pCO（2）升高导致的幼虫存活率下降，由于温度升高导致的生长速率改变，以及来自遥远种群的幼虫输入。在一个封闭的种群中，pCO（2）从40.5到91.2 Pa的增加降低了密度，温度从26到29 A ℃的增加导致种群在100年内灭绝。在10%的幼虫供应来自遥远的种群的情况下，无论高温（+3 A摄氏度），种群都能持续存在。这些结果表明：（1）只要其作为集合种群的一部分持续存在，能够从空间分离的种群中提供幼虫，那么Damicornis种群可能对GCC和OA具有抗性;（2）早期生活阶段可以调节Damicornis的种群动态。
Using empirical analyses of the effects of global climate change (GCC) and ocean acidification (OA) on the survival and calcification of early life stages of Pocillopora damicornis, we employed a demographic approach to forecast the consequences of GCC and OA on the population dynamics of this coral. We constructed a size-based demographic model using life-history tables and transition probabilities for a population in Southern Taiwan, and projected the population structure over similar to 100 yr under scenarios of warming and acidification. The simulations incorporated stochastic variability of the parameters (+/- 5 %), decline in larval survival due to increases in temperature and pCO(2), modified growth rates due to rising temperature, and larval input from distant populations. In a closed population, an increase of pCO(2) from 40.5 to 91.2 Pa reduces density, and an increase in temperature from 26 to 29 A degrees C results in population extirpation within 100 yr. With a larval supply of 10 % from distant populations, the population persisted regardless of high temperature (+3 A degrees C). These results indicate that: (1) populations of P. damicornis may be resistant to GCC and OA so long as it persists as part of a metapopulation capable of supplying larvae from spatially separated populations and (2) early life stages can regulate the population dynamics of P. damicornis.