Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century
Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02064.x
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发表时间：
2010-07-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Cramer, Wolfgang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Poulter, Benjamin;Aragao, Luiz;Cramer, Wolfgang
全球变化包括对自然生态系统的多种压力，从直接的气候和土地使用影响到火灾造成的间接退化过程。潮湿的热带森林容易受到预计的气候变化以及与毁林和火灾可能产生的协同作用的影响，这可能会对大气中二氧化碳的上升产生积极的反馈作用。在这里，我们提出了多因素影响分析的结果，该分析将气候变化模型与森林砍伐和意外火灾的反馈相结合，以量化亚马逊盆地碳循环的变化。使用LPJmL动态全球植被模型，我们模拟了净生物群落生产（NBP）的时空变化;来自火灾，森林砍伐，土壤呼吸和净初级生产的碳通量之间的差异。到2050年，森林砍伐和火灾（没有二氧化碳增加或气候变化）导致7.4-20.3 Pg C的碳损失，其不确定性取决于社会经济故事情节。在同一时期，气候和土地利用之间的相互作用要么补偿了由于潮湿气候和CO2施肥造成的碳损失，要么加剧了干旱引起的森林死亡率（-20.1至+4.3 Pg C）造成的碳损失。到21世纪末，根据气候预测和森林砍伐率（包括其与火灾的相互作用），碳储量增加（+12.6 Pg C）或减少（-40.6 Pg C）。毁林和火灾与气候变化的协同效应在碳储存的总体减少中贡献了高达26-36 Pg C。气候预测（n=9）之间的协议，不考虑森林砍伐和火灾，在2050年和2098年是相对较低的全流域NBP（19-37%）和地上活生物量（13-24%）的方向变化。最大的不确定性来自气候预测，其次是生态系统动态的实施和毁林。我们的分析划分热带生态系统变化的驱动因素，并指导与全球变化相关的减缓和适应政策。
Global change includes multiple stressors to natural ecosystems ranging from direct climate and land-use impacts to indirect degradation processes resulting from fire. Humid tropical forests are vulnerable to projected climate change and possible synergistic interactions with deforestation and fire, which may initiate a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO2. Here, we present results from a multifactorial impact analysis that combined an ensemble of climate change models with feedbacks from deforestation and accidental fires to quantify changes in Amazon Basin carbon cycling. Using the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, we modelled spatio-temporal changes in net biome production (NBP); the difference between carbon fluxes from fire, deforestation, soil respiration and net primary production. By 2050, deforestation and fire (with no CO2 increase or climate change) resulted in carbon losses of 7.4-20.3 Pg C with the range of uncertainty depending on socio-economic storyline. During the same time period, interactions between climate and land use either compensated for carbon losses due to wetter climate and CO2 fertilization or exacerbated carbon losses from drought-induced forest mortality (-20.1 to +4.3 Pg C). By the end of the 21st century, depending on climate projection and the rate of deforestation (including its interaction with fire), carbon stocks either increased (+12.6 Pg C) or decreased (-40.6 Pg C). The synergistic effect of deforestation and fire with climate change contributed up to 26-36 Pg C of the overall decrease in carbon stocks. Agreement between climate projections (n=9), not accounting for deforestation and fire, in 2050 and 2098 was relatively low for the directional change in basin-wide NBP (19-37%) and aboveground live biomass (13-24%). The largest uncertainty resulted from climate projections, followed by implementation of ecosystem dynamics and deforestation. Our analysis partitions the drivers of tropical ecosystem change and is relevant for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy related to global change.