Past permafrost dynamics can inform future permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks
Past permafrost dynamics can inform future permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s43247-023-00886-3
复制
发表时间：
2023-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Miriam C. Jones;G. Grosse;C. Treat;M. Turetsky;K. W. Anthony;L. Brosius
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Miriam C. Jones;G. Grosse;C. Treat;M. Turetsky;K. W. Anthony;L. Brosius
气候变暖可能会破坏北部大片永久冻土地区的稳定，可能会释放大量有机碳，进一步破坏气候。在这里，我们综合了过去永久冻土-碳动力学的古记录，以了解未来永久冻土的稳定性和碳反馈。我们确定了上次冰消期与今天之间影响永久冻土对大气变暖的响应的关键景观差异，以及限制随后碳吸收的景观水平差异。我们表明，目前的融化程度尚未超过之前的冰消期，但随着温度超过更新世的温度，永久冻土碳释放有可能对未来的北极气候产生强烈的反馈。需要更好地限制海底永久冻土及其碳库的范围，以及一系列永久冻土融化过程（包括井喷坑和巨型塌陷）的碳动力学，以帮助量化未来的永久冻土-碳-气候反馈。
Climate warming threatens to destabilize vast northern permafrost areas, potentially releasing large quantities of organic carbon that could further disrupt the climate. Here we synthesize paleorecords of past permafrost-carbon dynamics to contextualize future permafrost stability and carbon feedbacks. We identify key landscape differences between the last deglaciation and today that influence the response of permafrost to atmospheric warming, as well as landscape-level differences that limit subsequent carbon uptake. We show that the current magnitude of thaw has not yet exceeded that of previous deglaciations, but that permafrost carbon release has the potential to exert a strong feedback on future Arctic climate as temperatures exceed those of the Pleistocene. Better constraints on the extent of subsea permafrost and its carbon pool, and on carbon dynamics from a range of permafrost thaw processes, including blowout craters and megaslumps, are needed to help quantify the future permafrost-carbon-climate feedbacks.