Toward a plurality of methods in project evaluation: a contextualised approach to understanding impact trajectories and efficacy
Toward a plurality of methods in project evaluation: a contextualised approach to understanding impact trajectories and efficacy
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DOI：
10.1080/19439340902727719
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发表时间：
2009-01-01
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
Woolcock, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Woolcock, Michael
要理解发展项目的功效，不仅需要一个看似合理的反事实，而且需要在影响轨迹随时间的变化与部署一系列能够凭经验识别这种轨迹的相应研究工具之间建立适当的匹配。然而，目前，发展界对任何特定部门或项目类型的影响轨迹的预期形态知之甚少，只能通过隐含的假设来了解，因此很容易经常犯归因错误。随机化本身并不能解决这个问题。本文探讨了这些问题的根源和表现形式，并沿着提出了一些建设性的对策。
Understanding the efficacy of development projects requires not only a plausible counterfactual but also an appropriate match between the shape of impact trajectory over time and the deployment of a corresponding array of research tools capable of empirically discerning such a trajectory. At present, however, the development community knows very little, other than by implicit assumption, about the expected shape of the impact trajectory from any given sector or project type, and as such is prone to routinely making attribution errors. Randomisation per se does not solve this problem. The sources and manifestations of these problems are considered, along with some constructive suggestions for responding to them.