A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps
A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps
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DOI：
10.1016/s0013-7952(00)00039-9
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发表时间：
2000-12-01
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Michael, JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jibson, RW;Harp, EL;Michael, JA
1994年的加利福尼亚州北岭地震是我们拥有对地震斜坡失稳进行严格的地区性分析所需的所有数据集的第一次地震。这些数据集包括：(1)触发滑坡的全面清查；(2)约200条主震的强震记录；(3)该地区1：24000比例尺的地质填图；(4)大量的地质单元工程性质数据；(5)高分辨率的地形数字高程模型。所有这些数据集都已在一台Unix计算机上使用ARC/INFO地理信息系统软件以10m网格间距进行数字化和栅格化。根据Newmark的永久变形(滑动块体)分析，将这些数据集组合在一个动态模型中，得到了北岭地震每个网格单元中的同震滑坡位移的估计。然后，将模拟的位移与北岭地震引发的滑坡的数字清单进行比较，以构建预测位移与破坏概率之间的概率曲线。该概率函数可用于预测和绘制在任何感兴趣的地面震动条件下的失效概率的空间变异性。我们预计，这一测绘程序将被用于构建地震滑坡危险图，以帮助制定应急准备计划，并就易发生地震滑坡的地区的开发和建设做出合理决定。(C)2000 Elsevier Science B.V.保留所有权利。
The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.