Dose-response and transmission: the nexus between reservoir hosts, environment and recipient hosts
Dose-response and transmission: the nexus between reservoir hosts, environment and recipient hosts
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2019.0016
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发表时间：
2019-09-30
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
McCallum, Hamish
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lunn, Tamika J.;Restif, Olivier;McCallum, Hamish
剂量是接触与决定病原体压力的所有上游过程之间的联系，因此是疾病动态的一个重要因素。了解剂量与疾病之间的关系在外溢情况下尤其重要，因为剂量-反应的非线性可能决定传播的可能性。有必要探索直接传播和人畜共患病病原体的剂量反应模型，以及这些相互作用如何整合宿主内因素，以考虑宿主易感性的异质性和剂量依赖性拮抗作用。在这里，我们回顾了剂量-反应文献，并讨论了剂量-反应模型在理解和预测溢出事件中所起的独特作用。我们对两种重要的人畜共患病原体（中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒和尼帕病毒）的剂量反应实验进行了重新分析，以消除在小暴露实验数据集下区分适当模型的潜在困难。我们还讨论了剂量反应模型之间的稳健选择所需的数据要求。然后，我们建议如何模拟这些过程，以获得更现实的预测人畜共患病的传播结果，并强调了令人兴奋的机会，可能会出现与病毒学和流行病学学科之间的合作增加。这篇文章是主题问题的一部分“动态和综合的方法来理解病原体溢出”。
Dose is the nexus between exposure and all upstream processes that determine pathogen pressure, and is thereby an important element underlying disease dynamics. Understanding the relationship between dose and disease is particularly important in the context of spillover, where nonlinearities in the dose-response could determine the likelihood of transmission. There is a need to explore dose-response models for directly transmitted and zoonotic pathogens, and how these interactions integrate within-host factors to consider, for example, heterogeneity in host susceptibility and dose-dependent antagonism. Here, we review the dose-response literature and discuss the unique role dose-response models have to play in understanding and predicting spillover events. We present a re-analysis of dose-response experiments for two important zoonotic pathogens (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Nipah virus), to exemplify potential difficulties in differentiating between appropriate models with small exposure experiment datasets. We also discuss the data requirements needed for robust selection between dose-response models. We then suggest how these processes could be modelled to gain more realistic predictions of zoonotic transmission outcomes and highlight the exciting opportunities that could arise with increased collaboration between the virology and epidemiology disciplines.This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.