Research, part of a Special Feature on Systems Science for Managing Europe's Seas Past and future challenges in managing European seas
Research, part of a Special Feature on Systems Science for Managing Europe's Seas Past and future challenges in managing European seas
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研究是管理欧洲海洋的系统科学专题的一部分 管理欧洲海洋的过去和未来的挑战
DOI：
10.5751/es-07246-200140
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
L. Mee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thorsten Blenckner;A. Kannen;A. Barausse;C. Fischer;J. Heymans;T. Luisetti;Matilda Valman;L. Mee
近几十年来，由于过度捕捞、富营养化、生境破碎化等多种人为压力，海洋环境发生了大规模变化，导致生态系统的非线性反应。与此同时，管理机构缺乏适当的措施来应对这些突然的转变。我们专注于现有的例子，从欧洲海洋的社会生态系统，可用于通知和建议未来的管理。黑海和波罗的海的例子，对富营养化和渔业，以及管理机构的变化所造成的长期生态系统的变化，说明在社会生态系统的非线性动态。此外，我们提出了两个主要的未来挑战，即，气候变化和能源密集化，这可能进一步增加在不久的将来发生非线性变化的可能性。提出了应对这些挑战的实用工具，例如确保跨部门和跨规模决策过程中的学习、灵活性和网络。将风险分析与生态系统规划方法相结合，可能有助于及早确定生态系统变化的风险，并可能制定社会变革，为决策结构提供信息，以积极预防欧洲海域的重大意外。
Marine environments have undergone large-scale changes in recent decades as a result of multiple anthropogenic pressures, such as overfishing, eutrophication, habitat fragmentation, etc., causing often nonlinear ecosystem responses. At the same time, management institutions lack the appropriate measures to address these abrupt transformations. We focus on existing examples from social-ecological systems of European seas that can be used to inform and advise future management. Examples from the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea on long-term ecosystem changes caused by eutrophication and fisheries, as well as changes in management institutions, illustrate nonlinear dynamics in social-ecological systems. Furthermore, we present two major future challenges, i.e., climate change and energy intensification, that could further increase the potential for nonlinear changes in the near future. Practical tools to address these challenges are presented, such as ensuring learning, flexibility, and networking in decision-making processes across sectors and scales. A combination of risk analysis with a scenario-planning approach might help to identify the risks of ecosystem changes early on and may frame societal changes to inform decision-making structures to proactively prevent drastic surprises in European seas.