The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men
The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men
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DOI：
10.1038/sj.bjc.6602078
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发表时间：
2004-10-04
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Darby, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crispo, A;Brennan, P;Darby, S
最近基于英国数据的分析表明，戒烟的人，即使是到了中年，也能避免大部分随后患肺癌的风险。我们调查了在具有不同吸烟模式和处于肺癌流行的不同阶段的其他欧洲国家是否也发现了类似的男性肺癌绝对风险。我们使用来自英国、德国、意大利和瑞典一项针对男性肺癌的多中心病例对照研究的数据，其中包括 6523 例肺癌病例和 9468 例对照，我们将比值比估计值与全国肺癌发病率估计值相结合，计算出男性 75 岁时患肺癌的累积风险。英国、德国和意大利持续吸烟者 75 岁时患肺癌的累积风险相似，分别为 15.7%、14.3 和 13.8%而瑞典男性吸烟者的累积风险为 6.6%。 40 岁之前戒烟可避免肺癌风险的比例在这四个国家之间相当，意大利为 80%，英国、德国和瑞典为 91%。同样，通过在 50 岁之前戒烟来避免超额风险的比例从意大利的 57% 到德国的 69% 不等。我们的研究结果支持这样一个重要结论：对于长期吸烟者来说，中年戒烟可以避免大部分随后患肺癌的风险，并且未来三十年欧洲男性的肺癌死亡率将取决于当前吸烟者能够成功戒烟的程度。
Recent analyses based on UK data indicate that people who stop smoking, even well into middle age, avoid most of their subsequent risk of lung cancer. We investigated whether similar absolute risks of lung cancer in men are found in other European countries with different smoking patterns and at different stages of their lung cancer epidemic. Using data for men from a multicentre case-control study of lung cancer in the UK, Germany, Italy and Sweden, and including 6523 lung cancer cases and 9468 controls, we combined odds ratio estimates with estimates of national lung cancer incidence rates to calculate the cumulative risk of lung cancer among men by age 75. Lung cancer cumulative risks by age 75 among continuing smokers were similar for the UK, Germany and Italy at 15.7, 14.3 and 13.8% respectively, whereas the cumulative risk among Swedish male smokers was 6.6%. The proportion of the risk of lung cancer avoided by quitting smoking before the age of 40 was comparable between the four countries, at 80% in Italy and 91% in the UK, Germany and Sweden. Similarly, the proportion of the excess risk avoided by quitting before the age of 50 ranged from 57% in Italy to 69% in Germany. Our results support the important conclusion that for long-term smokers, giving up smoking in middle age avoids most of the subsequent risk of lung cancer, and that lung cancer mortality in European men over the next three decades will be determined by the extent to which current smokers can successfully quit smoking.