AN APPLICATION OF CONGESTED TRANSIT NETWORK LOADING WITH THE MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH
AN APPLICATION OF CONGESTED TRANSIT NETWORK LOADING WITH THE MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH
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马尔可夫链方法在拥塞交通网络负载中的应用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jan
不确定性和不可靠性是所有运输方式的主题。汽车司机和公共交通使用者可能无法及时到达目的地，或者在严重的情况下，根本无法到达。Du和Nicholson（1997）区分了两种不确定性来源。首先，供应变化，如道路或轨道堵塞，导致网络退化。第二，繁忙时间或体育赛事所引致的需求变动，可能导致道路网及公共交通系统的容车量出现问题。这两种变化来源都可能导致不可预测的延误和旅行时间的不确定性。然而，公共和私人交通工具的延误性质不同。汽车用户将花费更多的时间在他们的车辆排队等候或以较低的速度驾驶，但公共交通用户的车内时间保持相对恒定（可能除了较长的停留时间）。然而，在拥挤的情况下，由于空间不足，公交网络用户可能无法登上到达其公交车站或站台的第一辆车。这种不确定性的等待时间，因为一个非零的概率，过境车辆是拥挤的，似乎是研究不足的情况下，过境分配。
Uncertainty and unreliability is a topic for all modes of transport. Car drivers as well as public transport users might not arrive at their destination in time, or in severe cases, not arrive at all. Du and Nicholson (1997) distinguished two sources of uncertainty. Firstly, supply variations such as road or track blockage leading to network degradations. Secondly, demand variations engendered by peak periods or sporting events, which can lead to capacity problems for the road network as well as for the public transport systems. Both sources of variation can lead to unpredictable delays and uncertainty in travel times. The nature of the delays is, however, different for public and private transport. Car-users will spend more time in their vehicles waiting in queues or driving with reduced speed, but the in-vehicle time for public transport users keeps relatively constant (except maybe for longer dwelling times). In congested situations transit network users might, however, not be able to board the first vehicle arriving at their bus stop or platform because of insufficient space. This uncertainty in waiting time, because of a non-zero probability that the transit vehicle is overcrowded, seems to be underresearched in the context of transit assignment.