Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/08920753.2019.1551012
复制
发表时间：
2019-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
John A. Hall;C. Weaver;J. Obeysekera;M. Crowell;R. Horton;Robert E Kopp;J. Marburger;D. Marcy;A. Parris;W. Sweet;W. Veatch;K. White
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
John A. Hall;C. Weaver;J. Obeysekera;M. Crowell;R. Horton;Robert E Kopp;J. Marburger;D. Marcy;A. Parris;W. Sweet;W. Veatch;K. White
摘要海平面上升（SLR）不仅是未来的趋势，它正在发生在地球仪的大多数沿海地区。因此，它不仅影响沿海环境的长期规划，而且影响应急准备。它的不可避免性和不可逆转性在长时间尺度上，除了其空间的不均匀性，不确定的规模和时间，以及能力，以推动非平稳性在沿海洪水的规划和工程时标，沿海风险管理决策过程中创造独特的挑战。这篇评论评估了过去美国联邦为综合不断发展的SLR科学以支持沿海风险管理所做的努力。特别是，它概述了：（1）全球SLR情景演变为使用基于风险的观点，也考虑了低概率但高后果的结果，（2）全球情景的区域化，以及（3）概率方法的使用。它还介绍了通过将当地平均海平面变化与极端水位预测相结合，进一步将区域情景结合起来的努力。最后，它提供了与未来的吸收，解释和应用海平面变化情景的决策有关的关键问题的观点。这些观点对于制定备灾和抗灾措施标准和指南以减少沿海洪水风险和与SLR相关的其他影响的努力具有实用性。
Abstract Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.