Understanding fire drivers and relative impacts in different Chinese forest ecosystems
Understanding fire drivers and relative impacts in different Chinese forest ecosystems
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.219
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发表时间：
2017-12-15
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Hu, Haiqing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo, Futao;Su, Zhangwen;Hu, Haiqing
利用Ripley's K（d）函数和Logistic回归（LR）模型，分析了2000 - 2010年中国北方森林（大兴安岭）和亚热带森林（福建）两种不同森林生态系统火灾的空间格局和驱动因子。基于LR模型中的标准化系数，确定了各驱动因子对火灾发生的相对影响。结果表明，火灾在空间上是聚集的，不同的森林生态系统之间的火灾驱动力在中国。大兴安岭的火灾主要是人为因素造成的，其中基础设施被认为是影响最大的因素。气候因子对福建省森林火灾的发生起着决定性的作用，其中火季温度的影响最大。所选因子对大兴安岭和福建省火灾发生的预测率分别为80%和66%，其中人为因素和气候因素对两个研究区火灾发生的影响最大。这项研究表明，不同的防火和管理策略，需要在研究领域，作为主要的火灾驱动存在显着的变化。快速的社会经济发展在中国不同的森林生态系统中产生了类似的影响，这意味着社会经济发展与火灾状况之间有很强的相关性。可以得出结论，随着中国经济的持续增长，人为因素的影响将在未来增加-这是未来国家消防管理中应进一步关注的问题。(C)2017爱思唯尔B. V.保留所有权利。
In this study, spatial patterns and driving factors of fires were identified from 2000 to 2010 using Ripley's K (d) function and logistic regression (LR) model in two different forest ecosystems of China: the boreal forest (Daxing'an Mountains) and sub-tropical forest (Fujian province). Relative effects of each driving factor on fire occurrence were identified based on standardized coefficients in the LR model. Results revealed that fires were spatially clustered and that fire drivers vary amongst differing forest ecosystems in China. Fires in the Daxing'an Mountains respond primarily to human factors, of which infrastructure is recognized as the most influential. In contrast, climate factors played a critical role in fire occurrence in Fujian, of which the temperature of fire season was found to be of greater importance than other climate factors. Selected factors can predict nearly 80% of the total fire occurrence in the Daxing'an Mountains and 66% in Fujian, wherein human and climate factors contributed the greatest impact in the two study areas, respectively. This study suggests that different fire prevention and management strategies are required in the areas of study, as significant variations of the main fire-driving exist. Rapid socio-economic development has produced similar effects in different forest ecosystems within China, implying a strong correlation between socio-economic development and fire regimes. It can be concluded that the influence of human factors will increase in the future as China's economy continues to grow-an issue of concern that should be further addressed in future national fire management. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.