Determining important parameters in the spread of malaria through the sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model
Determining important parameters in the spread of malaria through the sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model
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DOI：
10.1007/s11538-008-9299-0
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发表时间：
2008-07-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Cushing, Jim M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chitnis, Nakul;Hyman, James M.;Cushing, Jim M.
我们对疟疾传播的数学模型进行敏感性分析，以确定模型参数对疾病传播和流行的相对重要性。我们编制了两组基线参数值：一组用于高传输区域，一组用于低传输区域。我们计算生殖数（衡量初始疾病传播）和地方病平衡点（衡量疾病流行率）对基线值参数的敏感性指数。我们发现，在低传播地区，生殖数量和平衡比例的传染性的人是最敏感的蚊子叮咬率。在高传播地区，生殖数量对蚊虫叮咬率同样最敏感，但受感染人群的平衡比例对人类康复率最敏感。这表明，以蚊虫叮咬率为目标的战略（如使用驱虫蚊帐和室内滞留喷洒）和以人的康复率为目标的战略（如迅速诊断和治疗感染者）可以成功地控制疟疾。
We perform sensitivity analyses on a mathematical model of malaria transmission to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission and prevalence. We compile two sets of baseline parameter values: one for areas of high transmission and one for low transmission. We compute sensitivity indices of the reproductive number (which measures initial disease transmission) and the endemic equilibrium point (which measures disease prevalence) to the parameters at the baseline values. We find that in areas of low transmission, the reproductive number and the equilibrium proportion of infectious humans are most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate. In areas of high transmission, the reproductive number is again most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate, but the equilibrium proportion of infectious humans is most sensitive to the human recovery rate. This suggests strategies that target the mosquito biting rate (such as the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying) and those that target the human recovery rate (such as the prompt diagnosis and treatment of infectious individuals) can be successful in controlling malaria.