Temporal patterns of domestic and wildlife rabies in central Namibia stock-ranching area, 1986-1996
Temporal patterns of domestic and wildlife rabies in central Namibia stock-ranching area, 1986-1996
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DOI：
10.1016/s0167-5877(99)00083-5
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发表时间：
2000-01-05
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Chomel, BB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Courtin, F;Carpenter, TE;Chomel, BB
11年（1986年至1996年）的野生动物和国内狂犬病的数据，从农业畜牧业的纳米比亚中部地区进行了研究，采用时间序列分析。在家养反刍动物（5.4例/月）、黑背豺（Canis mesomelas，1.3例/月）、家犬（0.5例/月）和大耳狐（Otocyon megalotis，0.1例/月）中观察到963例狂犬病病例。在整个研究期间，所有种属的狂犬病发病率均无显著变化。然而，季节性变化与每年6月至11月之间的病例数增加，以及3-4年的周期性波动，确定了国内反刍动物和黑背豺。黑背豺时间序列变量对反刍动物和狗时间序列变量有显著的预测作用，降雨季节性与黑背豺季节性繁殖模式相结合似乎是狂犬病季节性变化的合理解释。然而，在周期性天气波动和3-4年周期性狂犬病变化之间没有总体显著的相关性，（C）2000 Elsevier Science B. V.保留所有权利。
Eleven years (1986-1996) of wildlife- and domestic-rabies data from the agriculture stock-ranching area of central Namibia were studied using time-series analysis. Nine hundred and sixty three rabies cases were observed in domestic ruminants (5.4 cases/mo), black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas, 1.3 cases/mo), domestic dogs (0.5 case/mo), and bat-eared foxes (Otocyon megalotis, 0.1 case/mo). The incidence of rabies for all species did not change significantly over the whole study period. However, seasonal variations with an increase in the number of cases between June and November of each year, as well as 3-4 yr cyclical fluctuations were identified in domestic ruminants and black-backed jackals. The black-backed jackal time-series variable was a significant predictor of the domestic-ruminant and dog time-series variables, The rainfall seasonality combined with the seasonal reproductive pattern of the black-backed jackal appeared to be plausible explanations for the seasonal variations of rabies. However, then was no overall significant correlation between the cyclical weather fluctuations and the 3-4 yr cyclical rabies variations, (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.