Estimating the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in 297 United States counties
Estimating the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in 297 United States counties
复制标题
DOI：
10.1097/ee9.0000000000000096
复制
发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Wellenius, Gregory A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weinberger, Kate R.;Harris, Daniel;Wellenius, Gregory A.
背景：环境温度高与死亡风险之间存在着既定的关系。然而，美国每年可归因于高温的死亡人数仍未完全量化。方法：我们复制了一项大型国际研究的方法，以估计美国297个县的温度与死亡之间的关系，并另外计算了可归因于高温的死亡人数，这是政策制定者和公众可能感兴趣的数量。结果：2000年，在代表美国61.9%人口的297个县中，我们估计平均每年有5,608人(95%的经验可信区间=4,748，6,291)死亡可归因于高温，结论：我们的研究结果表明，美国与高温有关的死亡人数远高于此前报道的数字。
Background: There is a well-established relationship between high ambient temperature and risk of death. However, the number of deaths attributable to heat each year in the United States remains incompletely quantified.Methods: We replicated the approach from a large, international study to estimate temperature-mortality associations in 297 United States counties and additionally calculated the number of deaths attributable to heat, a quantity of likely interest to policymakers and the public.Results: Across 297 counties representing 61.9% of the United States population in 2000, we estimate that an average of 5,608 (95% empirical confidence interval = 4,748, 6,291) deaths were attributable to heat annually, 1997-2006.Conclusions: Our results suggest that the number of deaths related to heat in the United States is substantially larger than previously reported.