Net metering and market feedback loops: Exploring the impact of retail rate design on distributed PV deployment
Net metering and market feedback loops: Exploring the impact of retail rate design on distributed PV deployment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.10.120
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发表时间：
2016-01-15
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Mills, Andrew D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Darghouth, Naim R.;Wiser, Ryan H.;Mills, Andrew D.
在美国，客户现场太阳能光伏（PV）部署的大幅增加是由成本急剧下降、融资创新和支持政策共同推动的。其中一项支持政策是净计量，在大多数州，该政策有效地允许客户以全额零售电价获得分布式光伏发电的补偿。目前零售电价的设计和净计量的存在引发了人们的担忧，即光伏系统所有者可能无法收回固定公用事业成本，这可能导致零售价格上涨的反馈循环，从而加速光伏的采用和进一步的电价上涨。然而，一个单独的和相反的反馈回路可以抵消这种影响：增加光伏部署可能会导致高峰时段电价的变化，这可能会减少在使用时变零售电价的净计量下收到的账单节省，从而抑制光伏的进一步采用。在本文中，我们研究了到2050年，这两种相互竞争的反馈动态对美国各州住宅和商业客户分布式光伏部署的影响。我们的研究结果表明，在全国范围内，这两种反馈效应几乎相互抵消，因此产生适度的净效应，尽管它们的大小和方向因客户群体和州而异。我们还模拟了不同费率设计和净计量规则下的总光伏部署趋势，并考虑了反馈动态。我们的研究结果表明，分布式光伏的未来采用对零售费率结构高度敏感。与目前的费率结构组合相比，净计量的固定、定常费率会带来更高的全国总部署水平（到2050年将达到+5%），而每月固定客户费用较高的费率结构或低于全部零售费率的光伏补偿水平，会极大地侵蚀光伏的总客户采用率（根据设计，从-14%到-61%）。另一方面，随着时间的变化，加速了近期和中期的部署（到2030年），但减缓了长期的采用（到2050年-22%）。Elsevier Ltd.出版。
The substantial increase in deployment of customer-sited solar photovoltaics (PV) in the United States has been driven by a combination of steeply declining costs, financing innovations, and supportive policies. Among those supportive policies is net metering, which in most states effectively allows customers to receive compensation for distributed PV generation at the full retail electricity price. The current design of retail electricity rates and the presence of net metering have elicited concerns that the possible under-recovery of fixed utility costs from PV system owners may lead to a feedback loop of increasing retail prices that accelerate PV adoption and further rate increases. However, a separate and opposing feedback loop could offset this effect: increased PV deployment may lead to a shift in the timing of peak-period electricity prices that could reduce the bill savings received under net metering where time-varying retail electricity rates are used, thereby dampening further PV adoption. In this paper, we examine the impacts of these two competing feedback dynamics on U.S. distributed PV deployment through 2050 for both residential and commercial customers, across states. Our results indicate that, at the aggregate national level, the two feedback effects nearly offset one another and therefore produce a modest net effect, although their magnitude and direction vary by customer segment and by state. We also model aggregate PV deployment trends under various rate designs and net-metering rules, accounting for feedback dynamics. Our results demonstrate that future adoption of distributed PV is highly sensitive to retail rate structures. Whereas flat, time-invariant rates with net metering lead to higher aggregate national deployment levels than the current mix of rate structures (+5% in 2050), rate structures with higher monthly fixed customer charges or PV compensation at levels lower than the full retail rate can dramatically erode aggregate customer adoption of PV (from -14% to -61%, depending on the design). Moving towards time-varying rates, on the other hand, accelerates near- and medium-term deployment (through 2030) but slows adoption in the longer term (-22% in 2050). Published by Elsevier Ltd.