How well do meteorological indicators represent agricultural and forest drought across Europe?
How well do meteorological indicators represent agricultural and forest drought across Europe?
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aaafda
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Stahl, K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bachmair, S.;Tanguy, M.;Stahl, K.
干旱监测和预警系统是农业/林业干旱风险评估的重要组成部分。许多业务信息系统主要依靠气象指标，少数系统纳入了植被状况信息。然而，气象干旱指标与农业/造林干旱影响之间的关系在整个欧洲各不相同。在欧洲大陆范围内，这种变异性的细节尚未得到充分阐明，无法为行政范围内的干旱风险管理提供信息。本研究的目的是填补这一空白，并评估各种气象指标对评估整个欧洲农业/造林干旱的有用程度。分析的第一部分利用作物和森林的相关性分析，在NUTs 3行政区尺度上系统地将气象干旱指标与欧洲的遥感植被指数（维斯）联系起来。在第二步中，逐步多元线性回归模型被部署，以确定解释观察到的空间差异的变量。最后，在德国的玉米作物产量被选为案例研究，以验证维斯的农业干旱影响的代表性。结果表明，SPI和SPEI的短积累期在大多数情况下与作物植被胁迫有最好的联系，这进一步验证了SPI 3在现有业务干旱监测中的使用。然而，也揭示了相关性的巨大区域差异。气候（温度和降水量）解释的方差的最大比例，这表明气象指数是农业/造林干旱在欧洲寒冷/潮湿的部分信息较少。这些研究结果提供了重要的背景下，解释气象指数广泛使用的国家大陆M&EW系统，导致更好地了解在哪里/什么时候这样的M&EW工具可以指示可能的农业压力和影响。
Drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW) systems are an important component of agriculture/silviculture drought risk assessment. Many operational information systems rely mostly on meteorological indicators, and a few incorporate vegetation state information. However, the relationships between meteorological drought indicators and agricultural/silvicultural drought impacts vary across Europe. The details of this variability have not been elucidated sufficiently on a continental scale in Europe to inform drought risk management at administrative scales. The objective of this study is to fill this gap and evaluate how useful the variety of meteorological indicators are to assess agricultural/silvicultural drought across Europe. The first part of the analysis systematically linked meteorological drought indicators to remote sensing based vegetation indices (VIs) for Europe at NUTs3 administrative regions scale using correlation analysis for crops and forests. In a second step, a stepwise multiple linear regression model was deployed to identify variables explaining the spatial differences observed. Finally, corn crop yield in Germany was chosen as a case study to verify VIs' representativeness of agricultural drought impacts. Results show that short accumulation periods of SPI and SPEI are best linked to crop vegetation stress in most cases, which further validates the use of SPI3 in existing operational drought monitors. However, large regional differences in correlations are also revealed. Climate (temperature and precipitation) explained the largest proportion of variance, suggesting that meteorological indices are less informative of agricultural/silvicultural drought in colder/wetter parts of Europe. These findings provide important context for interpreting meteorological indices on widely used national to continental M&EW systems, leading to a better understanding of where/when such M&EW tools can be indicative of likely agricultural stress and impacts.