Multilevel analysis of climate change risk perception in Europe: Natural hazards, political contexts and mediating individual effects
Multilevel analysis of climate change risk perception in Europe: Natural hazards, political contexts and mediating individual effects
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2019.08.024
复制
发表时间：
2019-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Telesiene, Audrone
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Echavarren, Jose Manuel;Balzekiene, Aiste;Telesiene, Audrone
本文探讨了决定公众对气候变化风险认知的因素的复杂结构，结合了个人层面的指标（与社会结构有关）和宏观层面的指标（在国家层面），这些指标与国家对自然灾害的暴露和国家政治背景有关。本文采用了2017年特别欧洲晴雨表459（87.1）的调查数据以及关于政治背景和气候相关灾害的国家级统计数据。应用多水平混合效应线性回归。研究结果表明，与自然灾害相关的宏观变量很少能显著解释气候变化风险感知（如温度升高或缺水），宏观层面的政治背景不能显著解释气候变化关注程度的差异。然而，个人层面的变量（教育和政治取向）显着介导自然灾害和政治背景如何影响气候变化风险的看法。受教育程度较高的人对更容易遭受洪水和干旱的国家的气候变化的担忧更高，民主指数较高和气候政策较好的国家的左倾选民表现出更高的气候变化风险感知水平。科学素养是影响公众对气候变化的意见和关切的一个重要因素，特别是在对气候变化自然因素的复杂理解方面;具有明确的政治取向有助于人们反思气候变化的国家政治背景。
This article looks into the complex structure of factors which determine public risk perceptions of climate change, combining individual level indicators (related to social structures) and macro level indicators (at country level) related to countries' exposures to natural hazards and national political contexts. The article employs survey data from the 2017 Special Eurobarometer 459 (87.1) and country-level statistical data on political contexts and climate-related hazards. Multilevel mixed-effects linear regressions were applied. The results of the research indicate that few macro level variables related to natural hazards can significantly explain climate change risk perceptions (like temperature increases or water deficit), and political contexts at the macro level do not significantly explain the variance in the levels of concern about climate change. However, individual level variables (education and political orientation) significantly mediate how natural hazards and political contexts influence climate change risk perception. People with higher education levels have higher concerns about climate change in countries that are more vulnerable to floods and droughts, and left-leaning voters in countries with higher democracy indices and better climate policies demonstrate higher levels of climate change risk perception. Scientific literacy is an important factor in shaping public opinions and concerns about climate change, particularly with regard to the complex understanding of natural factors of climate change; having a clear political orientation helps people to reflect on the national political contexts of climate change.