Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe
Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe
复制标题
欧洲组织使用季节性气候预报的障碍和推动因素
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-016-1671-8
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
S. Dessai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Bruno Soares;S. Dessai
季节性气候预报（SCF）提供了有关未来气候变化的信息，这些信息有可能使组织及其决策受益。然而，SCF的生产和可用性并不能保证其在决策本身中的使用，因为一系列因素和条件影响其在不同决策环境中的使用。本文的目的是确定的障碍和推动力，在欧洲的组织使用SCF。为了实现这一目标，我们对16个国家的8个行业（包括能源、交通、水利和农业）的组织进行了75次深入采访。大多数受访组织目前没有使用SCF。这是由于SCF在欧洲的可靠性和技能较低，但也有其他非技术方面的原因，如SCF在组织中缺乏相关性和意识。相反，使用SCF的主要推动力是与SCF提供商的互动。此外，组织的资源、能力和专业知识水平也是在组织中使用SCF的重要推动因素。本文首次对SCF在欧洲的使用进行了实证评估。这些见解不仅概述了在欧洲使用SCF的现有障碍和推动因素，以及如何克服和谈判这些障碍和推动因素以提高SCF的可用性，而且还有助于为欧洲气候服务发展的更广泛和新出现的背景提供信息。
Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) provide information about future climate variability that has the potential to benefit organisations and their decision-making. However, the production and availability of SCF does not guarantee its use in decision-making per se as a range of factors and conditions influence its use in different decision-making contexts. The aim of this paper is to identify the barriers and enablers to the use of SCF across organisations in Europe. To achieve that, we conducted 75 in-depth interviews with organisations working across eight sectors (including energy, transport, water and agriculture) and 16 countries. The majority of the organisations interviewed do not currently use SCF. This was due to the low reliability and skill of SCF in Europe but also with other non-technical aspects such as the lack of relevance and awareness of SCF in the organisations. Conversely, the main enabler to the use of SCF was the interactions with the providers of SCF. In addition, the level of organisational resources, capacity and expertise were also significant enablers to the use of SCF in organisations. This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the use of SCF in Europe. Such insights provide not only an overview of the existing barriers and enablers to the use of SCF in Europe and how these can be overcome and negotiated to enhance the usability of SCF, but can also help inform the broader and emerging context of climate services development in Europe.