Performance determinants show European cities are delivering on climate mitigation
Performance determinants show European cities are delivering on climate mitigation
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-0879-9
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发表时间：
2020-08-24
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Goyal, Nihit
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hsu, Angel;Tan, Jonas;Goyal, Nihit
城市在减缓气候变化方面发挥着重要作用。文本分析技术和回归建模显示了在欧洲市长公约倡议中报告的1，000多个城市取得的进展，这些城市积极参与城市一级的气候行动，是气候变化的关键行为者，主要是自愿制定行动计划和减排目标。然而，通过跨国气候倡议产生影响的证据有限，将缓解战略与减排联系起来的经验支持也很少。在这里，我们显示，在1,000多个欧盟市长公约城市中，有60%正在实现其2020年的减排目标。对城市减缓成果和绩效决定因素的评估表明，与未走上轨道的城市相比，走上轨道的城市往往目标不那么雄心勃勃，基线排放量更高，并且所在国家的国家气候政策更雄心勃勃，实现的减排量更大。自动文本分析和回归模型发现，城市减排受到规划层面、城市层面和国家层面特征的影响。更大的减排与针对能源效率的计划有关。城市一级的成就的这些结果为理论化的国家以下一级行为者对全球气候减缓的贡献提供了经验支持。
Cities have an important role in climate mitigation. Textual analysis techniques and regression modelling show the progress made by over 1,000 cities reporting in the European Covenant of Mayors initiative, active in climate action at the urban level.Cities are crucial climate change actors, developing largely voluntary action plans and emission reduction targets. There is limited evidence, however, of their impact through transnational climate initiatives and little empirical support linking mitigation strategies and emissions reductions. Here, we show that 60% of more than 1,000 EU Covenant of Mayors' cities are on track to achieve their 2020 emission reduction targets. Assessments of cities' mitigation outcomes and the determinants of performance show that on-track cities tend to have less-ambitious targets and higher baseline emissions and are in countries with more-ambitious national climate policies and greater realized emissions reductions than cities that are not on track. Automated textual analysis and a regression model find city emissions reduction is influenced by plan-level, city-level and country-level characteristics. Greater emissions reductions are associated with plans targeting energy efficiency. These results of city-level achievement provide empirical support for the theorized subnational actors' contribution to global climate mitigation.