Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions
Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abe06b
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发表时间：
2021-03-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Collins, William J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Allen, Robert J.;Horowitz, Larry W.;Collins, William J.
包括气溶胶和对流层臭氧和甲烷等化学反应性气体在内的近期气候强迫因子（NTCF）为缓解气候变化和改善空气质量提供了一种潜在的方法，即所谓的“双赢”缓解政策。先前的研究支持NTCF缓解下的空气质量改善，但具有相互冲突的气候影响，从全球变暖速度的显着降低到只有适度的影响。在这里，我们使用最先进的化学气候模型模拟作为气溶胶和化学模型相互比较项目（AerChemMIP）的一部分，使用现实的未来排放情景和一致的空气质量政策，量化NTCF减少对21世纪的影响。非甲烷NTCF（NMNTCF;气溶胶和臭氧前体物）的缓解改善了空气质量，但导致本世纪中叶全球平均降水量显著增加1.3%，本世纪末增加1.4%，相应的地表变暖0.23和0.21 K。NTCF（all-NTCF;包括甲烷在内的温室气体减排进一步改善了空气质量，臭氧污染的降幅更大，最高可达45%，同时在本世纪中叶抵消了一半的湿润（增加0.7%），在本世纪末抵消了所有湿润（增加0.1%，不显著），并导致本世纪中叶的地表冷却为-0.15 K，本世纪末为-0.50 K。这表明甲烷减排抵消了NMNTCFs减少引起的变暖，同时也导致空气质量的净改善。
Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality-so called 'win-win' mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of -0.15 K by mid-century and -0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality.