Climate change and future temperature-related mortality in 15 Canadian cities
Climate change and future temperature-related mortality in 15 Canadian cities
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-011-0449-y
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Tremblay, Neil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Martin, Sara Lauretta;Cakmak, Sabit;Tremblay, Neil
气候变化引起的环境变化是对人类社会的重大挑战。这一挑战的一部分将是更大的热相关死亡率。北方的人口将经历超过全球平均水平的温度上升，但这是否会增加或减少与温度有关的总死亡率负担仍有争议。在这里，我们使用分布滞后模型来描述温度与死亡率的关系，在15个加拿大城市。此外，我们还研究了加拿大各地温度变化的历史趋势。然后，我们开发了特定城市的一般线性模型，以估计高温和低温相关的死亡率的变化，使用动态降尺度的气候预测为中心的2040年，2060年和2080年的未来四个时期。我们发现，最低死亡温度通常位于城市温度分布的第75百分位，加拿大人目前经历的冷相关的死亡率比热相关的死亡率更大，更持久的风险。此外，我们没有发现任何证据表明加拿大的温度变化正在增加。然而，预计的气温上升足以改变一些城市与高温和寒冷有关的死亡率的相对水平。虽然大多数与温度有关的死亡率将继续与寒冷有关，但我们的模型预测，较高的温度将增加汉密尔顿、伦敦、蒙特利尔和里贾纳的年度与温度有关的死亡率负担，但会导致其他11个调查城市的死亡率负担轻微至中度下降。
The environmental changes caused by climate change represent a significant challenge to human societies. One part of this challenge will be greater heat-related mortality. Populations in the northern hemisphere will experience temperature increases exceeding the global average, but whether this will increase or decrease total temperature-related mortality burdens is debated. Here, we use distributed lag modeling to characterize temperature-mortality relationships in 15 Canadian cities. Further, we examine historical trends in temperature variation across Canada. We then develop city-specific general linear models to estimate change in high- and low-temperature-related mortality using dynamically downscaled climate projections for four future periods centred on 2040, 2060 and 2080. We find that the minimum mortality temperature is frequently located at approximately the 75th percentile of the city's temperature distribution, and that Canadians currently experience greater and longer lasting risk from cold-related than heat-related mortality. Additionally, we find no evidence that temperature variation is increasing in Canada. However, the projected increased temperatures are sufficient to change the relative levels of heat- and cold-related mortality in some cities. While most temperature-related mortality will continue to be cold-related, our models predict that higher temperatures will increase the burden of annual temperature-related mortality in Hamilton, London, Montreal and Regina, but result in slight to moderate decreases in the burden of mortality in the other 11 cities investigated.