Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections
Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections
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DOI：
10.1111/gere.12214
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发表时间：
2017-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
N. Shiklomanov;D. Streletskiy;T. Swales;Vasily A. Kokorev
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Shiklomanov;D. Streletskiy;T. Swales;Vasily A. Kokorev
摘要气候变化对北极城市景观最重要的影响之一是永久冻土的变暖和退化，这对基础设施的结构完整性产生了负面影响。我们估计了俄罗斯建立在永久冻土上的城市基础设施的稳定性的潜在变化，以应对最近的气候模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）中六个预选的大气环流模式（GCM）提供的预测气候变化。该分析是在俄罗斯永久冻土影响区的整个范围内进行的。根据我们的分析，预计到世纪中期，整个俄罗斯永久冻土区的城市基础设施稳定性将显著降低（至少25%）。然而，由于GCM产生的气候预测的高度不确定性，无法对永久冻土基础设施的潜在气候影响的速度和幅度得出明确的结论。本文的研究结果可以作为俄罗斯北方城市制定适当的适应和减缓战略的指导方针。
Abstract One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter‐comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost‐affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate‐induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid‐21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM‐produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities.