Assessing land ecological security in Shanghai (China) based on catastrophe theory
Assessing land ecological security in Shanghai (China) based on catastrophe theory
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DOI：
10.1007/s00477-011-0457-9
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发表时间：
2011-08-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Wu, Jiaping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Su, Shiliang;Li, Dan;Wu, Jiaping
鉴于土地生态系统在区域、国家和国际社会经济发展中的重要作用以及快速城市化进程中土地生态系统的退化，需要对土地生态安全进行系统诊断，以促进可持续发展。为克服现有土地生态安全评价方法主观性和复杂性的不足，建立了土地生态安全评价的突变模型。在压力-状态-响应框架下，将巨灾评估指标体系划分为多层次子系统。突变模型根据指标间的内在矛盾和相对重要性，将多个土地生态安全评价指标集成在一起，不计算权重。具体而言，根据较低级别指标对合适模型（如尖点、褶皱、燕尾和蝴蝶模型）的隶属度计算较高级别指标的隶属度。应用该模型对上海市土地生态安全状况进行了评价。利用Mann-Kendall检验来表征1999年至2008年的时间趋势。土地生态安全的压力分指数、状态分指数、响应分指数和综合指数均呈明显下降趋势。上海市土地生态状况不容乐观，应引起决策者的重视。本文提出的计算方法不需要高水平的专业技术人员来确定隶属度，具有简单易行的特点。突变模型适用于相似的土地生态系统，为土地生态安全评价提供了一种新的方法。
Given the important role of land ecosystem in social-economic progress at regional, national, and international scale and concurrent degradation of land ecosystems under rapid urbanization, a systematic diagnosis of land ecological security (eco-security) for sustainable development is needed. A catastrophe model for land ecological security assessment was developed in order to overcome the disadvantages in subjectivity and complexity of the currently used assessment methods. The catastrophe assessment index system was divided into hierarchical sub-systems under the pressure-state-response framework. The catastrophe model integrated multiple assessment indices of land eco-security according to the inherent contradictions and relative importance of indices without calculating weights. Specifically, membership degree of higher level index was calculated based on the membership degrees of lower level indices that were subjective to suitable model, such as cusp, fold, swallowtail and butterfly model. This model was applied to evaluate the state of land eco-security in Shanghai. Mann-Kendall's test was utilized to characterize its temporal trend between 1999 and 2008. Significant downward trend was identified for land eco-security, in terms of pressure sub-index, state sub-index, response sub-index and synthetic index. All these implied that land ecosystem conditions were not optimistic for Shanghai and such situation should draw the attention of policy makers. The calculation procedure presented in this paper does not require a high level of technical expertise to determine the membership degree, making it simple and operational. Being applicable to similar land ecosystems, the catastrophe model is thus believed to provide an alternative approach to land eco-security assessment.