How Drone Strikes and a Fake Vaccination Program Have Inhibited Polio Eradication in Pakistan: An Analysis of National Level Data
How Drone Strikes and a Fake Vaccination Program Have Inhibited Polio Eradication in Pakistan: An Analysis of National Level Data
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DOI：
10.1177/0020731417722888
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Kennedy, Jonathan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kennedy, Jonathan
本文调查了美国的反叛乱行动是否阻碍了巴基斯坦西北部的脊髓灰质炎根除努力，巴基斯坦西北部是世界上最后一个主要的脊髓灰质炎宿主。坊间证据表明，武装分子扰乱了脊髓灰质炎疫苗接种计划，因为他们怀疑这些活动是收集中央情报局(CIA)无人机目标情报的幌子。本文通过对国家级量化数据的分析来验证这一论点。2004至2012年间，巴基斯坦的小儿麻痹症病例数量与无人机袭击的数量密切相关。但从2013年开始，小儿麻痹症病例增加，而无人机袭击减少。这可以用CIA使用假免疫活动来解释，在2011年奥萨马·本·拉登被暗杀之前，他试图获取奥萨马·本·拉登亲属的DNA，但以失败告终。这似乎证明了武装分子的怀疑是正确的，即疫苗接种计划是间谍活动的掩护。因此，武装分子加强了对免疫运动的破坏，导致巴基斯坦以及阿富汗、叙利亚和伊拉克的脊髓灰质炎病例增加。对于政客和军事规划者来说，无人机之所以有吸引力，是因为据说它们比传统战争方法伤害的平民更少。然而，这篇论文表明，无人机袭击对巴基斯坦和更远地区平民的福祉产生了负面影响，因为它们破坏了全球根除脊髓灰质炎的努力。
This article investigates whether the United States' counterinsurgency operations have inhibited polio eradication efforts in northwestern Pakistan, the world's last major reservoir of polio. Anecdotal evidence suggests that militants disrupt polio vaccination programs because of suspicions that campaigns are a cover for gathering intelligence on Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) drone targets. This paper analyzes national-level quantitative data to test this argument. Between 2004 and 2012, the number of polio cases in Pakistan closely mirrored the number of drone strikes. But from 2013 onward, polio cases increased while drone strikes fell. This can be explained by the CIA's use of a fake immunization campaign in a failed attempt to obtain the DNA of Osama bin Laden's relatives prior to his assassination in 2011. This seemingly vindicated militants' suspicions that vaccination programs were a cover for espionage. Militants consequently intensified their disruption of immunization campaigns, resulting in an increase in polio cases in Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq. For politicians and military planners, drones are attractive because they are said to harm fewer civilians than conventional methods of warfare. However, this paper demonstrates that drone strikes had negative effects on the well-being of civilians in Pakistan and further afield because they undermined global efforts to eradicate polio.