Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
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DOI：
10.1257/mac.20180366
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发表时间：
2021-04-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Strauss, Benjamin H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Desmet, Klaus;Kopp, Robert E.;Strauss, Benjamin H.
海平面上升将导致未来200年经济活动的空间变化。本文利用一个空间分解的世界经济动态模型，估计了局部海平面变化的概率预测的后果。在温室气体排放的中间情景下，按现值计算，永久性洪水预计将使全球实际GDP减少0.19%。到2200年，预计将有1.46%的人口流离失所。沿海地区的损失要大得多。当忽略投资和移民的动态响应时，2200年的实际GDP损失从0.11%增加到4.5%。
Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.