Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios
Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios
复制标题
基于RCP/SSP情景的沿海地区适应有效性全球评估
作者：
M. Tamura;N. Kumano;Mizuki Yotsukuri;H. Yokoki
这项研究的目的是评估海平面上升对全球的影响，并评估适应的有效性。确定了全球因海平面上升而被淹没的地区。在涉及代表性集中路径(RCP)和共享社会经济路径(SSP)的若干情景下，估计了受影响的人口和未来气候变化造成的洪水造成的经济损失。评估了沿海地区适应的影响，特别是抬高堤坝的影响。根据研究结果，在相同的RCP条件下，堤防高度1米可能会使总淹没面积比无适应基线减少约40%。利用原始成本数据库估算适应成本，以确定未来社会经济情景下的保护成本。研究发现，在几乎所有的RCP/SSP案例中，增量适应成本都小于经济损失，这为采取行动应对气候变化提供了动力。
The objective of this study is to assess the global impact of sea level rise and to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation. Global areas of inundation due to sea level rise are identified. The affected populations and the economic damage caused by inundation due to future climate change are estimated for a number of scenarios involving Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The effects of adaptation in coastal areas, specifically the effects of elevating dikes, are evaluated. According to study results, dikes 1 m in height may reduce the total inundated area by approximately 40% below the no-adaptation baseline under the same RCP. The cost of adaptation was estimated using an original cost database to establish the cost of protection in future socioeconomic scenarios. It was found that the incremental adaptation cost was less than the economic damage in almost all cases of RCP/SSP, providing an incentive to take action to respond to climate change.