Mathematical modelling of patient flow through an accident and emergency department
Mathematical modelling of patient flow through an accident and emergency department
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急诊室患者流动的数学模型
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通讯作者：
Mr Coats
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作者：
T. J. Coats;S. Michalis;Mr Coats
目标--本项目的目标；(1)评估方法，(2)评估更详细的模型所需的信息，以及(3)确定是否值得为更详细的模型进行所需的数据收集。方法-采用离散事件模拟的运筹学方法构建数学模型。利用该模型评估了不同SHO换班方式对等待时间的影响。结果：由于在这个初步模型中必须做出大量的假设，所以所构建的模型并不能准确地表示患者的fl。然而，该模型预测，与患者到达模式更接近的SHO换班模式将产生更短的等待时间。结论：该方法适用于急诊科。通过收集更多数据和开发更复杂的模型来推广这一方法似乎是值得的。(《急诊医学杂志》2001；18：190-192)
Objectives —The objectives of this project; (1) to evaluate the method, (2) to assess the information required for a more detailed model, and (3) to determine if it was worthwhile to undertake the data collection needed for a more detailed model. Methods —A mathematical model was constructed using the operational research method of discreet event simulation. The e V ect of di V erent SHO shift patterns on waiting time was assessed with the model. Results —The model constructed was not an accurate representation of patient flow because of the large number of assumptions that had to be made in this prelimi-nary model. However, the model predicted that an SHO shift pattern that more closely matched the patient arrival pattern would produce shorter waiting times. Conclusions —This method can be applied to an accident and emergency department. Extension of this approach with the collection of additional data and the development of more sophisticated models seems worthwhile. ( Emerg Med J 2001; 18 :190–192)