The transient response of global-mean precipitation to increasing carbon dioxide levels
The transient response of global-mean precipitation to increasing carbon dioxide levels
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025212
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发表时间：
2010-04-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Forster, Piers M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andrews, Timothy;Forster, Piers M.
在13个完全耦合的大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCMs）中研究了全球平均降水对大气二氧化碳水平增加1% yr（-1）的瞬态响应，并与稳定期进行了比较。在稳定期间，当二氧化碳水平保持在其未扰动水平的两倍不变且气候变暖时，在aogcm中，降水以类似于每单位全球平均地表气温变化2.4%的速率增加。然而，当二氧化碳水平增加时，降水以较小的速率增加，大约为每单位全球平均地表气温变化1.5%。这种差异可以通过将降水响应分解为对全球地表温度升高（及其引起的气候反馈）的响应的增加，以及大气对二氧化碳辐射强迫的快速响应来理解，二氧化碳辐射强迫的作用是减少降水。根据多模式平均值，稳定大气二氧化碳水平将导致每单位全球地表温度变化的降水变化率增大。
The transient response of global-mean precipitation to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels of 1% yr(-1) is investigated in 13 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and compared to a period of stabilization. During the period of stabilization, when carbon dioxide levels are held constant at twice their unperturbed level and the climate left to warm, precipitation increases at a rate of similar to 2.4% per unit of global-mean surface-air-temperature change in the AOGCMs. However, when carbon dioxide levels are increasing, precipitation increases at a smaller rate of similar to 1.5% per unit of global-mean surface-air-temperature change. This difference can be understood by decomposing the precipitation response into an increase from the response to the global surface-temperature increase (and the climate feedbacks it induces), and a fast atmospheric response to the carbon dioxide radiative forcing that acts to decrease precipitation. According to the multi-model mean, stabilizing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide would lead to a greater rate of precipitation change per unit of global surface-temperature change.