Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era.
Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era.
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.1500561
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发表时间：
2015-11
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Zang C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cook ER;Seager R;Kushnir Y;Briffa KR;Büntgen U;Frank D;Krusic PJ;Tegel W;van der Schrier G;Andreu-Hayles L;Baillie M;Baittinger C;Bleicher N;Bonde N;Brown D;Carrer M;Cooper R;Čufar K;Dittmar C;Esper J;Griggs C;Gunnarson B;Günther B;Gutierrez E;Haneca K;Helama S;Herzig F;Heussner KU;Hofmann J;Janda P;Kontic R;Köse N;Kyncl T;Levanič T;Linderholm H;Manning S;Melvin TM;Miles D;Neuwirth B;Nicolussi K;Nola P;Panayotov M;Popa I;Rothe A;Seftigen K;Seim A;Svarva H;Svoboda M;Thun T;Timonen M;Touchan R;Trotsiuk V;Trouet V;Walder F;Ważny T;Wilson R;Zang C
一个欧洲和地中海盆地共同时代特大干旱地图集提供了对气候变化的见解。气候模式预测表明，在未来几十年内，地中海盆地将普遍干旱，芬诺斯坎迪亚将普遍湿润，这主要是温室气体对气候强迫的结果。为了将这些和其他“旧世界”的气候预测纳入历史的角度来看，基于更完整的自然水文气候变化的估计，我们已经开发了“旧世界干旱地图集”（OWDA），一套每年的树木年轮重建欧洲和地中海盆地在共同时代的夏季湿度和干燥的地图。OWDA将严重干旱和潮湿的历史记录与以前没有的空间完整性相匹配。此外，11世纪和15世纪中期欧洲中北部地区的大干旱重建强化了来自北美和亚洲的其他证据，即世纪之前北方半球陆地地区的干旱更为严重、广泛和持久，但对干旱原因的了解不足。OWDA提供了新的数据来确定旧世界干旱和潮湿的原因，并将过去的气候变率归因于强迫和/或内部变率。
An atlas of megadroughts in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era provides insights into climate variability. Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.