Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters
Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters
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DOI：
10.1162/00335530360535207
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发表时间：
2003-02-01
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Carroll, CD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carroll, CD
长期以来，经济学家一直强调预期在决定宏观经济结果方面的重要性。然而，最近几乎没有人试图对实际的经验预期数据进行建模;相反，宏观经济学家通常简单地假设预期是“理性的”。“这篇论文表明，虽然经验主义的家庭预期在通常意义上是不理性的，但预期动态可以通过一个模型很好地捕捉到，在这个模型中，家庭的观点来自于专业预测者的观点的新闻报道，而这些观点反过来可能是理性的。该模型的估计意味着人们只是偶尔关注新闻报道;这种不关注在总体预期中产生了“粘性”，并产生了重要的宏观经济后果。
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead, macroeconomists usually simply assume that expectations are "rational." This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense, expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters, which in turn may be rational. The model's estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports; this inattention generates "stickyness" in aggregate expectations, with important macroeconomic consequences.