Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
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DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.10.2000180
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发表时间：
2020-03-12
期刊：
影响因子：
19
通讯作者：
Chowell, Gerardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mizumoto, Kenji;Kagaya, Katsushi;Chowell, Gerardo
于二零二零年二月五日，在日本横滨，一艘载有3，711人的邮轮因一名前乘客在下船后被发现感染COVID-19而接受为期两周的隔离。截至2月20日，船上634人的致病病毒检测呈阳性。我们进行了统计建模，以得出延迟调整后的无症状感染比例沿着感染时间轴。估计无症状的比例为17.9%（95%可信区间（CrI）：15.5-20.2%）。大多数感染发生在隔离开始之前。
On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections' timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5-20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.