Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.
Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.
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DOI：
10.3389/fmicb.2016.01174
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Craft ME
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Escobar LE;Craft ME
在公共卫生和动物卫生领域，绘制疾病传播风险地图对于基于证据的决策至关重要。生态学和流行病学是高度相关的学科，可能有助于改进绘制疾病地图，从而可用于回答与健康有关的问题。生态位模型越来越多地用于了解植物、动物和人类疾病的生物地理学。然而，流行病学应用生态位建模方法进行疾病制图可能无法产生稳健的研究设计，从而产生不完整或不正确的推论。这份手稿概述了生态位建模背后的历史和概念基础，特别是应用于流行病学和公共卫生；它并不假装是生态位建模文献和方法的详尽和详细的描述。相反，本综述包括选定的最先进的方法和工具，为设计研究提供了一个简短的指南，包括输入数据的类型和质量（即，发生和环境变量）的信息，研究区域范围的识别和证明，并鼓励用户探索和测试各种算法，以获得更明智的结论。我们提供了一个友好的介绍，疾病生物地理学领域提出了一个更新的指南，研究人员希望使用生态位建模疾病制图。我们预计，生态位模型将很快成为流行病学家绘制疾病传播风险图、预测气候变化情景下的疾病分布、识别引发疫情的景观因素的关键工具。
Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.