Application of macroecological theory to predict effects of climate change on global fisheries potential
Application of macroecological theory to predict effects of climate change on global fisheries potential
复制标题
DOI：
10.3354/meps07414
复制
发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Pauly, Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cheung, William W. L.;Close, Chris;Pauly, Daniel
全球变化正在塑造海洋物种及其渔业的生态和生物地理。宏观生态学理论处理生态学和生物地理学之间的大规模关系，可以用来开发模型来预测全球变化对海洋物种的影响，进而影响它们的渔业。首先，基于营养能量学和代谢异速缩放理论，建立了一个物种最大捕捞潜力与其营养水平、地理范围和物种开发范围内平均初级产量之间的理论模型。然后，利用该理论模型和1000种已开发的海洋鱼类和无脊椎动物的数据，分析了物种的近似最大捕捞潜力与其生态和生物地理变量之间的经验关系。在经验模型中包含了额外的变量，以纠正由于原始捕获数据中固有的不确定性而产生的偏差。实证模型具有较高的解释力，符合理论预期。未来，该经验模型可与生物气候包络模型相结合，用于预测气候变化对全球海洋渔业的社会经济影响。本文以东海小黄鱼Larimichthys polyactis （Sciaenidae）为例说明了这种潜在的应用。
Global changes are shaping the ecology and biogeography of marine species and their fisheries. Macroecology theory, which deals with large scale relationships between ecology and biogeography, can be used to develop models to predict the effects of global changes on marine species that in turn affect their fisheries. First, based on theories linking trophic energetics and allometric scaling of metabolism, we developed a theoretical model that relates maximum catch potential from a species to its trophic level, geographic range, and mean primary production within the species' exploited range. Then, using this theoretical model and data from 1000 species of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates, we analyzed the empirical relationship between species' approximated maximum catch potential, their ecology, and biogeography variables. Additional variables are included in the empirical model to correct for biases resulting from the uncertainty inherent in the original catch data. The empirical model has high explanatory power and agrees with theoretical expectations. In the future, this empirical model can be combined with a bioclimate envelope model to predict the socio-economic impacts of climate change on global marine fisheries. Such potential application is illustrated here with an example pertaining to the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis (Sciaenidae) from the East China Sea.